Improving Physics-Based Aftershock Forecasts During the 2016-2017 Central Italy Earthquake Cascade
Improving Physics-Based Aftershock Forecasts During the 2016-2017 Central Italy Earthquake Cascade
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DOI：
10.1029/2019jb017874
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发表时间：
2019-08-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Cattania, C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mancini, S.;Segou, M.;Cattania, C.
2016-2017年亚平宁中部地震序列是一个最近的例子，说明后续余震造成的损失可能超过最初主震造成的损失。最近的研究表明，基于物理学的余震预测目前可比的技能，他们的统计同行，但他们的表现仍然是一个有争议的话题。在这里，我们采用基于物理的模型相联合收割机的弹性静态应力转移率和状态摩擦定律，和短期统计流行病型余震序列（ETAS）模型来描述地震级联的时空演化。然后，我们在2016年8月24日阿马特里斯M-w = 6.0地震后的1年时间范围内，使用对数似然统计跟踪绝对和相对模型性能。我们进行了一系列的伪前瞻性实验，产生七类库仑率状态（CRS）的预测，逐渐增加的数据输入质量和模型的复杂性。我们的目标是研究数据质量对基于物理模型的预测能力的影响，并评估关键时间窗口中预测的比较性能，例如10月26日Visso地震导致10月30日M-w = 6.5 Norcia主震之后的时期。我们发现：（1）基本CRS模型的时空性能较差，并随着使用更精细的数据而逐步改善;（2）当包括M3+地震的二次触发效应以及空间可变滑动模型、空间异质接收器故障和优化的速率和状态参数时，CRS预测的信息量与ETAS一样多。在Visso地震之后，更精细的CRS模型优于ETAS，突出了静态应力转移对地震预报的重要性。
The 2016-2017 Central Apennines earthquake sequence is a recent example of how damages from subsequent aftershocks can exceed those caused by the initial mainshock. Recent studies reveal that physics-based aftershock forecasts present comparable skills to their statistical counterparts, but their performance remains a controversial subject. Here we employ physics-based models that combine the elasto-static stress transfer with rate-and-state friction laws, and short-term statistical Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models to describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the earthquake cascade. We then track the absolute and relative model performance using log-likelihood statistics for a 1-year horizon after the 24 August 2016 M-w = 6.0 Amatrice earthquake. We perform a series of pseudoprospective experiments by producing seven classes of Coulomb rate-state (CRS) forecasts with gradual increase in data input quality and model complexity. Our goal is to investigate the influence of data quality on the predictive power of physics-based models and to assess the comparative performance of the forecasts in critical time windows, such as the period following the 26 October Visso earthquakes leading to the 30 October M-w = 6.5 Norcia mainshock. We find that (1) the spatiotemporal performance of the basic CRS models is poor and progressively improves as more refined data are used, (2) CRS forecasts are about as informative as ETAS when secondary triggering effects from M3+ earthquakes are included together with spatially variable slip models, spatially heterogeneous receiver faults, and optimized rate-and-state parameters. After the Visso earthquakes, the more elaborate CRS model outperforms ETAS highlighting the importance of the static stress transfer for operational earthquake forecasting.