Cost-effectiveness of reducing emissions from tropical deforestation, 2016-2050
Cost-effectiveness of reducing emissions from tropical deforestation, 2016-2050
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/aa907c
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发表时间：
2018-01-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Engelmann, Jens
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Busch, Jonah;Engelmann, Jens
减少热带森林砍伐可能是减缓气候变化的一项大规模和低成本战略。然而，以前的努力，以项目的成本效益的政策，以减少温室气体排放量的未来森林砍伐整个热带地区受到阻碍的粗糙现有数据的历史森林损失。在这里，我们使用最近可用的2001-2012年间年度森林损失的卫星地图，沿着地形信息，可达性，保护状态，潜在的农业收入，以及观察到的森林覆盖损失和森林覆盖之间的倒U形关系，to project项目tropical热带deforestation砍伐from 2016- 2050年，在替代政策情景下，并构建新的边际减排成本曲线，以减少热带森林砍伐的排放。我们预测，如果没有新的森林保护政策，2016-2050年将有2.89亿公顷热带森林被砍伐，释放1.69亿吨二氧化碳。如果热带国家的碳价格为20美元/吨二氧化碳（2）（50美元/吨二氧化碳（2）），那么从2016年到2050年，将避免41 GtCO（2）（77 GtCO（2））。相比之下，我们估计，巴西在2004-2012年期间在亚马逊地区的限制性政策成功地将潜在的农业收入与森林砍伐脱钩，并将森林砍伐减少了47%，低于否则会发生的水平，防止了5.2 GtCO的排放。2004-2012年期间，所有热带国家如实施与巴西亚马逊地区同样有效的限制性反毁林政策，2016-2050年将避免58 GtCO（2）。
Reducing tropical deforestation is potentially a large-scale and low-cost strategy for mitigating climate change. Yet previous efforts to project the cost-effectiveness of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from future deforestation across the tropics were hampered by crude available data on historical forest loss. Here we use recently available satellite-based maps of annual forest loss between 2001-2012, along with information on topography, accessibility, protected status, potential agricultural revenue, and an observed inverted-U-shaped relationship between forest cover loss and forest cover, to project tropical deforestation from 2016-2050 under alternative policy scenarios and to construct new marginal abatement cost curves for reducing emissions from tropical deforestation. We project that without new forest conservation policies 289 million hectares of tropical forest will be cleared from 2016-2050, releasing 169 GtCO(2). A carbon price of US$20/tCO(2) ($50/tCO(2)) across tropical countries would avoid 41 GtCO(2) (77 GtCO(2)) from 2016-2050. By comparison, we estimate that Brazil's restrictive policies in the Amazon between 2004-2012 successfully decoupled potential agricultural revenue from deforestation and reduced deforestation by 47% below what would have otherwise occurred, preventing the emission of 5.2 GtCO(2). All tropical countries enacting restrictive anti-deforestation policies as effective as those in the Brazilian Amazon between 2004-2012 would avoid 58 GtCO(2) from 2016-2050.