Demographic effects on residential electricity and city gas consumption in the aging society of Japan
Demographic effects on residential electricity and city gas consumption in the aging society of Japan
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2018.01.016
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发表时间：
2018-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Kotani, Koji
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ota, Toru;Kakinaka, Makoto;Kotani, Koji
日本面临着两种人口力量，即生育率下降和寿命延长，这导致老年人比例增加（老龄化社会）、人口减少和核心家庭盛行。本研究实证分析了日本人口对居民用电和城市燃气消费的影响。我们的分析提出了以下主要结果。首先，社会老龄化减少了电力需求，但对城市燃气需求的影响并不显著。第二，随着核心家庭的普及，人口的减少增加了电力需求，但减少了城市燃气需求。对每种选择的需求方向取决于第一种和第二种效应的平衡。第三，分析还显示了关于自身和交叉价格效应的明确结果。目前为抑制价格而进行的能源市场改革将增加能源需求，这两种能源之间可能存在替代性。我们对日本的案例研究也适用于其他国家，这些国家刚刚开始经历类似的人口老龄化社会模式，能源市场放松管制。
Japan has been confronted with two demographic forces, declining fertility rates and lengthening life spans, which give rise to the increasing ratio of the elderly (aging society), the decline in population and the prevalence of nuclear families. This study empirically analyzes the demographic effects on residential electricity and city gas consumption in Japan. Our analysis presents the following main results. First, the aging of the society decreases the electricity demand but does not affect the city gas demand significantly. Second, the decrease in population with the prevalence of nuclear families increases the electricity demand but decreases the city gas demand. The direction of the demand for each alternative depends on the balancing of the first and second effects. Third, the analysis also shows clear results about the own- and cross-price effects. Ongoing energy market reforms for price suppression would increase energy demand with possible substitutability between the two energy sources. Our case study of Japan is also applicable to other countries that will have just started to experience the similar demographic pattern of an aging society with energy market deregulation.