The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses
The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate3274
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发表时间：
2017-05-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Marotzke, Jochem
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hedemann, Christopher;Mauritsen, Thorsten;Marotzke, Jochem
在21世纪的第一个十年里，地球表面变暖的速度比气候模型模拟的要慢。一些研究将这种表面变暖的间歇期归因于外部强迫的模型误差(2-4)，而另一些研究则指出由内部变化引起的海洋中的热重排(5-10)，其时间无法由模型预测(1)。然而，观测分析不同意哪个海洋区域应对此负责(11-16)。我们在这里表明，这种间歇也可能是由大气层顶部能量不平衡的内部变化造成的。在一个100人的历史集合上，海洋表层的能量预算表明，间歇期是由能量通量偏差造成的，这种偏差小到0.08W m(-2)，可以起源于大气层顶部，也可以起源于海洋，或者两者兼而有之。利用现有观测数据进行预算不能限制最近中断的来源，因为观测中的不确定性使可能导致中断的微小通量偏差相形见绌。这些通量偏差对观测数据集和能量预算选择的敏感性有助于解释为什么以前的研究相互矛盾，并表明最近中断的原因可能永远无法确定。
During the first decade of the twenty-first century, the Earth's surface warmed more slowly than climate models simulated(1). This surface-warming hiatus is attributed by some studies to model errors in external forcing(2-4), while others point to heat rearrangements in the ocean(5-10) caused by internal variability, the timing of which cannot be predicted by the models(1). However, observational analyses disagree about which ocean region is responsible(11-16). Here we show that the hiatus could also have been caused by internal variability in the top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance. Energy budgeting for the ocean surface layer over a 100-member historical ensemble reveals that hiatuses are caused by energy-flux deviations as small as 0.08 W m(-2), which can originate at the top of the atmosphere, in the ocean, or both. Budgeting with existing observations cannot constrain the origin of the recent hiatus, because the uncertainty in observations dwarfs the small flux deviations that could cause a hiatus. The sensitivity of these flux deviations to the observational dataset and to energy budget choices helps explain why previous studies conflict, and suggests that the origin of the recent hiatus may never be identified.