Fatal police violence by race and state in the USA, 1980-2019: a network meta-regression.
Fatal police violence by race and state in the USA, 1980-2019: a network meta-regression.
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DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01609-3
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发表时间：
2021-10-02
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通讯作者：
GBD 2019 Police Violence US Subnational Collaborators
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作者：
GBD 2019 Police Violence US Subnational Collaborators
致命的警察暴力负担是美国一个紧迫的公共卫生危机。越来越多的证据表明，死于警察之手的人对某些种族和族裔的人产生了不成比例的影响，这表明警察工作中存在系统性的种族主义。最近，美国警察高调杀人事件促使人们呼吁对警察暴力行为进行更广泛和公开的数据报告。本研究探讨了美国政府运行的重要登记数据中警察暴力的存在和漏报程度，提供了一种纠正这些数据集中漏报的方法，并提出了美国警察暴力死亡的修订估计。我们将美国国家生命统计系统（NVSS）的数据与三个关于警察暴力的非政府开源数据库进行了比较：致命遭遇，警察暴力地图和计数。我们提取并标准化了所有数据来源的每位死者的年龄、性别、美国死亡登记状态、死亡年份以及种族和民族（非西班牙裔白色、非西班牙裔黑人、其他种族的非西班牙裔和任何种族的西班牙裔），并使用网络荟萃回归来量化NVSS中的漏报率。使用这些比率来通知校正因子，我们提供了1980年至2019年美国所有州，年龄，性别，种族和民族因警察暴力而死亡的调整估计数。在美国所有种族和州，我们估计1980年至2018年期间有30800人死于警察暴力（95%不确定性区间[UI] 30300 - 31300）;这比NVSS报告的死亡人数多17100人（16600 - 17600）。 在此期间，非西班牙裔黑人因警察暴力而导致的年龄标准化死亡率最高（每10万人中有0.69 [95% UI 0.67 - 0.71] ），其次是西班牙裔人（0·35 [0·34-0·36]）、非西班牙裔白色人（0·20 [0·19-0·20]）和其他种族的非西班牙裔人（0·15 [0·14- 0·16]）。这种变化进一步受到死者性别的影响，并显示出各州之间的巨大差异。在1980年至2018年期间，NVSS没有报告55.5%（54.8 - 56.2）的警察暴力死亡。当汇总所有种族时，由于警察暴力导致的年龄标准化死亡率在20世纪80年代为每10万人0.25（0.24 - 0.26），在2010年代为每10万人0.34（0.34 - 0.35），在研究期间增加了38.4%（32.4 - 45.1）。 我们发现，我们估计从1980年到2018年，美国因警察暴力而死亡的人数中有一半以上没有在NVSS中报告。除此之外，我们还发现，随着时间的推移，美国境内不同种族和民族的警察暴力行为导致的年龄标准化死亡率存在很大差异。因此，我们需要采取适当的公共卫生干预策略来解决这些系统性偏差。州一级的估计数使这些战略能够适当地针对解决警察暴力问题和改进对警察暴力的报告。比尔和梅林达盖茨基金会，国家少数民族健康和健康差异研究所，国家心脏，肺和血液研究所。
The burden of fatal police violence is an urgent public health crisis in the USA. Mounting evidence shows that deaths at the hands of the police disproportionately impact people of certain races and ethnicities, pointing to systemic racism in policing. Recent high-profile killings by police in the USA have prompted calls for more extensive and public data reporting on police violence. This study examines the presence and extent of under-reporting of police violence in US Government-run vital registration data, offers a method for correcting under-reporting in these datasets, and presents revised estimates of deaths due to police violence in the USA. We compared data from the USA National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) to three non-governmental, open-source databases on police violence: Fatal Encounters, Mapping Police Violence, and The Counted. We extracted and standardised the age, sex, US state of death registration, year of death, and race and ethnicity (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic of other races, and Hispanic of any race) of each decedent for all data sources and used a network meta-regression to quantify the rate of under-reporting within the NVSS. Using these rates to inform correction factors, we provide adjusted estimates of deaths due to police violence for all states, ages, sexes, and racial and ethnic groups from 1980 to 2019 across the USA. Across all races and states in the USA, we estimate 30 800 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 30 300–31 300) from police violence between 1980 and 2018; this represents 17 100 more deaths (16 600–17 600) than reported by the NVSS. Over this time period, the age-standardised mortality rate due to police violence was highest in non-Hispanic Black people (0·69 [95% UI 0·67–0·71] per 100 000), followed by Hispanic people of any race (0·35 [0·34–0·36]), non-Hispanic White people (0·20 [0·19–0·20]), and non-Hispanic people of other races (0·15 [0·14– 0·16]). This variation is further affected by the decedent's sex and shows large discrepancies between states. Between 1980 and 2018, the NVSS did not report 55·5% (54·8–56·2) of all deaths attributable to police violence. When aggregating all races, the age-standardised mortality rate due to police violence was 0·25 (0·24–0·26) per 100 000 in the 1980s and 0·34 (0·34–0·35) per 100 000 in the 2010s, an increase of 38·4% (32·4–45·1) over the period of study. We found that more than half of all deaths due to police violence that we estimated in the USA from 1980 to 2018 were unreported in the NVSS. Compounding this, we found substantial differences in the age-standardised mortality rate due to police violence over time and by racial and ethnic groups within the USA. Proven public health intervention strategies are needed to address these systematic biases. State-level estimates allow for appropriate targeting of these strategies to address police violence and improve its reporting. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities, and National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.