Long-term follow-up of criminal recidivism in young sex offenders: Temporal patterns and risk factors
Long-term follow-up of criminal recidivism in young sex offenders: Temporal patterns and risk factors
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年轻性犯罪者犯罪累犯的长期随访：时间模式和风险因素
DOI：
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发表时间：
2002
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Niklas Långström
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Niklas Långström
摘要最近的研究表明，在确定的成年性犯罪者的犯罪再犯的风险可能会持续几十年后的指数犯罪，要求调查这些问题，也为年轻的性犯罪者。作者研究了刑事再定罪的时间模式和有效性的16个经验性动机的风险因素再犯的所有年轻的性犯罪者（15-20岁）进行判决前的法医精神病学评估在瑞典在1980年至1995年（N = 126）。从释放开始，对S进行了平均115个月的跟踪。117例（115例男性，2例女性）患者可用于随访，平均风险时间为80个月。性犯罪和暴力非性犯罪的基本再定罪率分别为30%和42%。使用风险调整后的风险比来自考克斯回归，特征表明偏差的性兴趣（任何以前的性犯罪行为，在公共场所的性犯罪指数，涉及陌生人受害者，犯罪的两个或两个以上的犯罪场合，和两个或两个以上的受害者）被发现增加性累犯的风险。反社会生活方式的标志（DSM-IV行为障碍的早期迹象和任何先前的暴力定罪），表明攻击倾向的性犯罪相关特征（使用威胁或武力和身体受害者伤害），以及受害者渗透，增加了暴力非性重新定罪的风险。生存分析表明，作为风险时间函数的性再定罪率在6-7年后明显下降，而暴力非性再定罪率基本保持不变。
Abstract Recent studies indicate that risk for criminal re-offending in identified adult sex offenders may persist decades after the index offence, calling for inquiry into these issues also for younger sex offenders. The author studied temporal patterns for criminal reconvictions and the validity of 16 empirically motivated risk factors for recidivism among all young sex offenders (15–20 years of age) subjected to pre-sentence forensic psychiatric evaluations in Sweden during 1980–1995 (N = 126). The Ss were followed from release and for an average of 115 months. One-hundred-and-seventeen (115 male, 2 female) Ss were available for follow-up with a mean time-at-risk of 80 months. Base rates for sexual and violent non-sexual reconvictions were 30% and 42%, respectively. Using time-at-risk-adjusted hazard ratios derived from Cox regression, characteristics indicative of deviant sexual interest (any previous sex offending behaviour, an index sex offence in a public area, involving a stranger victim, offending on two or more offence occasions, and two or more victims) were found to increase the risk for sexual recidivism. Markers of antisocial lifestyle (early signs of DSM-IV Conduct Disorder and any prior violent conviction), sex offence-related characteristics indicating aggression proneness (use of threats or force and physical victim injury), and victim penetration, increased the risk for violent non-sexual reconvictions. Survival analyses indicated that the rate of sexual reconvictions as a function of time at risk decreased distinctly after 6–7 years whereas the rate for violent non-sexual reconvictions remained largely the same.