Superspreading events in the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2: Opportunities for interventions and control.
Superspreading events in the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2: Opportunities for interventions and control.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pbio.3000897
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发表时间：
2020-11
期刊：
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Hu H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Althouse BM;Wenger EA;Miller JC;Scarpino SV;Allard A;Hébert-Dufresne L;Hu H
严重急性呼吸道综合征冠状病毒2型（SARS-CoV-2）是2019年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的病原体，已在地球仪迅速传播，感染了数百万人，造成数十万人死亡。基本繁殖数，这已被广泛使用-适当和不太适当-来表征病毒的传播性，隐藏的事实，即传播是随机的，往往由少数人主导，并严重影响超级传播事件（SSE）。SARS-CoV-2的独特传播特征，例如，在低流行率下的高随机性（与其他病原体，如流感相比），以及SSE在传播动态中发挥的核心作用不容忽视。许多爆炸性SSE发生在室内环境中，助长了流行病并影响了其传播，例如长期护理设施、监狱、肉类加工厂、农产品加工设施、鱼类加工厂、游轮、家庭聚会、派对和夜总会。这些SSE表明迫切需要了解传播途径，同时提供了通过有针对性的干预措施有效控制疫情以消除SSE的机会。在这里，我们描述了不同类型的SSE，它们如何影响传播，它们在COVID-19大流行中所起作用的经验证据，并给出了控制SARS-CoV-2的建议。这篇文章讨论了COVID-19的传播如何由超级传播事件主导，提出找到方法来切断继发感染的长尾对于控制继续传播很重要。
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the etiological agent of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) disease, has moved rapidly around the globe, infecting millions and killing hundreds of thousands. The basic reproduction number, which has been widely used—appropriately and less appropriately—to characterize the transmissibility of the virus, hides the fact that transmission is stochastic, often dominated by a small number of individuals, and heavily influenced by superspreading events (SSEs). The distinct transmission features of SARS-CoV-2, e.g., high stochasticity under low prevalence (as compared to other pathogens, such as influenza), and the central role played by SSEs on transmission dynamics cannot be overlooked. Many explosive SSEs have occurred in indoor settings, stoking the pandemic and shaping its spread, such as long-term care facilities, prisons, meat-packing plants, produce processing facilities, fish factories, cruise ships, family gatherings, parties, and nightclubs. These SSEs demonstrate the urgent need to understand routes of transmission, while posing an opportunity to effectively contain outbreaks with targeted interventions to eliminate SSEs. Here, we describe the different types of SSEs, how they influence transmission, empirical evidence for their role in the COVID-19 pandemic, and give recommendations for control of SARS-CoV-2. This Essay discusses how the transmission of COVID-19 is dominated by superspreading events, proposing that finding ways to cut the long tail of secondary infections is important for controlling onward transmission.
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