Effects of climatic changes on carbon dioxide and water vapor fluxes in boreal forest ecosystems of European part of Russia
Effects of climatic changes on carbon dioxide and water vapor fluxes in boreal forest ecosystems of European part of Russia
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045007
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发表时间：
2009-10
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
A. Olchev;E. Novenko;O. Desherevskaya;K. Krasnorutskaya;J. Kurbatova
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Olchev;E. Novenko;O. Desherevskaya;K. Krasnorutskaya;J. Kurbatova
可能的气候和植被变化对H2O和CO2通量在北部森林生态系统的欧洲俄罗斯中部的影响进行了量化建模和实验数据。使用全球气候模型ECHAM 5（Roeckner et al 2003 The Atmospheric General Circulation Model ECHAM 5.第一部分：模型说明，第349号报告（汉堡：马克斯-普朗克气象研究所），第127页）。未来植被变化的可能趋势，获得了植被覆盖和古气候条件的重建，在晚更新世和全新世，提供花粉和植物宏体化石分析的配置文件中的中央森林国家自然生物圈保护区（CFSNBR）。应用古相似物的方法表明，年平均温度即使升高1-2 °C，也会导致北方森林中云杉的比例减少40%。模拟实验，进行了基于过程的Mixfor-SVAT模型，表明，预期未来的气候和植被变化导致的净生态系统交换（NEE）和总初级生产力（GPP）的北方森林显着增加。尽管预期的气候变暖和湿润，模拟实验表明，相对于目前的条件下，森林生态系统的年蒸散量（ET）的增加，甚至减少蒸腾（TR）率相对较弱。
Effects of possible climatic and vegetation changes on H2O and CO2 fluxes in boreal forest ecosystems of the central part of European Russia were quantified using modeling and experimental data. The future pattern of climatic conditions for the period up to 2100 was derived using the global climatic model ECHAM5 (Roeckner et al 2003 The Atmospheric General Circulation Model ECHAM 5. PART I: Model Description, Report 349 (Hamburg: Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology) p 127) with the A1B emission scenario. The possible trends of future vegetation changes were obtained by reconstructions of vegetation cover and paleoclimatic conditions in the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, as provided from pollen and plant macrofossil analysis of profiles in the Central Forest State Natural Biosphere Reserve (CFSNBR). Applying the method of paleoanalogues demonstrates that increasing the mean annual temperature, even by 1–2 °C, could result in reducing the proportion of spruce in boreal forest stands by up to 40%. Modeling experiments, carried out using a process-based Mixfor-SVAT model, show that the expected future climatic and vegetation changes lead to a significant increase of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) of the boreal forests. Despite the expected warming and moistening of the climate, the modeling experiments indicate a relatively weak increase of annual evapotranspiration (ET) and even a reduction of transpiration (TR) rates of forest ecosystems compared to present conditions.