The dynamics of food chains under climate change and nutrient enrichment
The dynamics of food chains under climate change and nutrient enrichment
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DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2012.0230
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发表时间：
2012-11-05
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Rall, Bjoern C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Binzer, Amrei;Guill, Christian;Rall, Bjoern C.
变暖对生物体的新陈代谢、生长、摄食和死亡等生物速率产生深远影响，最终影响其生存能力。使用非线性生物能种群动态模型来解释生物速率的温度和体重依赖性，我们分析了温度升高和营养富集对三个物种食物链动态的个体和交互影响。在低温下，变暖通过自下而上（通过承载能力）和自上而下（通过生物速率）机制抵消富集的不稳定影响。随着消费者体重的增加，变暖增加了系统对受精的耐受性。同时，变暖增加了低肥力系统中大型物种挨饿的风险。这种影响可以通过增加施肥来抵消。因此，全球变化和生物多样性丧失的两个主要驱动因素结合在一起，可能对食物链的稳定性产生积极和消极的影响。我们的模型结合了最新的经验数据，因此可以用作结合食物网结构的更复杂的预测模型的基础。
Warming has profound effects on biological rates such as metabolism, growth, feeding and death of organisms, eventually affecting their ability to survive. Using a nonlinear bioenergetic population-dynamic model that accounts for temperature and body-mass dependencies of biological rates, we analysed the individual and interactive effects of increasing temperature and nutrient enrichment on the dynamics of a three-species food chain. At low temperatures, warming counteracts the destabilizing effects of enrichment by both bottom-up (via the carrying capacity) and top-down (via biological rates) mechanisms. Together with increasing consumer body masses, warming increases the system tolerance to fertilization. Simultaneously, warming increases the risk of starvation for large species in low-fertility systems. This effect can be counteracted by increased fertilization. In combination, therefore, two main drivers of global change and biodiversity loss can have positive and negative effects on food chain stability. Our model incorporates the most recent empirical data and may thus be used as the basis for more complex forecasting models incorporating food-web structure.