THE RAND CONTINUOUS 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION POLL
THE RAND CONTINUOUS 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION POLL
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DOI：
10.1093/poq/nfu009
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发表时间：
2014-01-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Weerman, Bas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gutsche, Tania L.;Kapteyn, Arie;Weerman, Bas
兰德2012年总统选举连续民意调查（CPEP）是在美国生活小组内进行的，该小组是通过传统概率抽样招募的互联网小组，以确保代表性。由于CPEP反复询问相同的受访者关于他们的投票偏好，观察到的变化主要归因于个人改变主意，而不是随机抽样波动。CPEP要求受访者以百分比的机会来说明他们对候选人的偏好和他们投票的可能性。此外，我们还询问了受访者在选举后的实际投票情况，因此我们可以研究样本内和样本外（全国结果）的预测能力。CPEP似乎预测得很好。我们对奥巴马和罗姆尼之间民众投票差异的最终预测与最终统计结果相差约半个百分点，这将使其接近或位于民调公司的榜首。即使在选举前几个月，概率问题也与实际投票行为密切相关。我们的方法使我们能够深入了解投票偏好的稳定性以及事件对个人偏好的影响;例如，各种变化可以与重大事件明确相关。
The RAND Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll (CPEP) was conducted within the American Life Panel, an Internet panel recruited through traditional probability sampling to ensure representativeness. Because the CPEP asks the same respondents repeatedly about their voting preferences, observed changes are attributable primarily to individuals changing their minds and not to random sampling fluctuations. The CPEP asks respondents to state in terms of percent chance both their preferences for a candidate and the likelihood that they will vote. Moreover, we asked the respondents about their actual voting after the election, so we can study the predictive power both within sample and out of sample (the national results). The CPEP appears to have predicted well. Our final prediction of the difference in popular vote between Obama and Romney differed about half a percentage point from the final tally, which would place it near or at the top of the polling firms. The probabilistic questions, even months before the election, were strongly related to actual voting behavior. Our approach allows us to gain insights into stability of voting preferences and the effect of events on individual preferences; for example, various shifts can be clearly related to major events.