Exploring regional differences in cyclist safety at roundabouts: A comparative study between the UK (based on Northumbria data) and Belgium.
Exploring regional differences in cyclist safety at roundabouts: A comparative study between the UK (based on Northumbria data) and Belgium.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.aap.2020.105902
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发表时间：
2020-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Nurten Akgün;S. Daniels;M. Bell;Nina Nuyttens;N. Thorpe;D. Dissanayake
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Nurten Akgün;S. Daniels;M. Bell;Nina Nuyttens;N. Thorpe;D. Dissanayake
环岛骑车人的安全水平可能会因国家差异而异，不仅是设计本身，还有社会人口、骑车人和司机的行为以及环境因素。本文通过比较英国（以诺森比亚为代表样本）和比利时，研究了国家对环形交叉路口骑车人伤亡严重程度的影响。这些数据包括限速、社会人口特征、环境条件和司机/骑自行车者行为相关的影响因素。首先，对包括864名骑车人伤亡在内的英国数据进行了逻辑回归分析。将速度限制提高10个单位（例如从30英里/小时提高到40英里/小时），骑自行车的人死亡或受重伤的概率会提高10%。骑自行车的人死亡或严重受伤的可能性是其三倍多（优势比为3.02），其中突然刹车被记录为一个促成因素。其次，对比利时进行了单独的逻辑回归分析。骑自行车的人忽视环形交叉路口的优先权增加了致命或重伤碰撞的可能性（优势比为2.71）。对比两国的个体分析，骑车者年龄的影响是一致的。在英国和比利时，骑车者年龄每增加一岁，死亡或重伤的几率就会增加2%（优势比为1.02）。最后对两国的代理变量进行了比较分析。独立性的三向卡方检验表明，在英国和比利时之间，所有非行为变量（即社会人口特征、速度限制和环境条件）在轻微伤亡、死亡和重伤伤亡方面都存在统计学差异。这表明，两国的司机/骑自行车者的互动和行为大致相似，而限速、骑自行车者的社会人口特征和环境条件对每个国家都是具体的。第三部分的逻辑回归分析表明，国家残差具有高度统计显著性。这表明，在分析中使用的两个区域数据集的特征方面存在一些统计上显著的差异。
The level of safety for cyclists at roundabouts may vary according to national differences not only in the design itself but also sociodemographic, cyclist and driver behaviour as well as environmental factors. This paper investigates the national influence on cyclist casualty severity at roundabouts by comparing the United Kingdom (using Northumbria as a representative sample) and Belgium. The data included speed limits, socio-demographic characteristics, environmental conditions and driver/cyclist behaviour-related contributory factors. First, a logistic regression analysis for the UK data, including 864 cyclist casualties, was carried out. Increasing the speed limit by ten units (for example 30mph to 40mph) increased the probability of a cyclist being killed or seriously injured by 10%. A cyclist casualty was more than three times more likely to be killed or seriously injured (the odds ratio is 3.02) where sudden braking was recorded as a contributory factor. Second, a separate logistic regression analysis for Belgium was conducted. Cyclists ignoring the priority at roundabouts increased the probability of a fatal or seriously injured collisions (the odds ratio is 2.71). Comparing the individual analysis for both countries, the influence of cyclist age was consistent. Each one-year increase in cyclist age increases chance of being killed or seriously injured as opposed to not being killed or seriously injured by 2 % (odds ratio is 1.02) in both UK and Belgium. A final comparative analysis was applied considering proxy variables for both countries. Three-way chi-square tests of independence showed that all non-behavioural variables (i.e. sociodemographic characteristics, speed limit, and environmental conditions) were found to be statistically different between UK and Belgium for both slight and killed and seriously injured casualties. This suggests that driver/cyclist interaction and behaviour in the two countries is generally similar whilst speed limits, the sociodemographic characteristics of cyclists and environmental conditions are specific for each country. The third part of the logistic regression analysis suggested that the country residual was highly statistically significant. This indicates that there are some statistically significant differences with respect to the characteristics of the two regional datasets used in the analysis.