The effects of climate model similarity on probabilistic climate projections and the implications for local, risk‐based adaptation planning
The effects of climate model similarity on probabilistic climate projections and the implications for local, risk‐based adaptation planning
复制标题
气候模型相似性对概率气候预测的影响以及对当地基于风险的适应规划的影响
DOI：
10.1002/2015gl064529
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
C. Brown
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Steinschneider;R. McCrary;L. Mearns;C. Brown
发展未来气候的概率密度函数（pdf）方法通常假设不同的气候模式提供独立的信息，尽管模式相似性源于一个共同的谱系（具有共享代码的模式或在同一机构开发的模式）。在这里，我们使用来自耦合模式相互比较项目第5阶段的预估集合来开发美国七个地区的概率气候信息，无论是否考虑模式间的相关性。然后，我们使用pdf来估计其中一个地区的水务公司在本世纪中叶面临的气候相关风险。我们表明，如果忽略模式相关性，所有地区的气候变化方差都被低估了，在某些情况下，平均变化也会发生变化。当与水文和供水设施基础设施的影响模型相结合时，被低估的大规模气候变化的可能性显著改变了到本世纪中叶水资源短缺风险的量化。
Approaches for probability density function (pdf) development of future climate often assume that different climate models provide independent information, despite model similarities that stem from a common genealogy (models with shared code or developed at the same institution). Here we use an ensemble of projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to develop probabilistic climate information, with and without an accounting of intermodel correlations, for seven regions across the United States. We then use the pdfs to estimate midcentury climate‐related risks to a water utility in one of the regions. We show that the variance of climate changes is underestimated across all regions if model correlations are ignored, and in some cases, the mean change shifts as well. When coupled with impact models of the hydrology and infrastructure of a water utility, the underestimated likelihood of large climate changes significantly alters the quantification of risk for water shortages by midcentury.