Agent-based scenarios comparison for assessing fuel-switching investment in long-term energy transitions of the India's industry sector
Agent-based scenarios comparison for assessing fuel-switching investment in long-term energy transitions of the India's industry sector
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115295
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发表时间：
2020-09-15
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Hawkes, Adam
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Moya, Diego;Budinis, Sara;Hawkes, Adam
本文提出了一种新的基于主体的综合评估方法的制定和应用，以模拟印度钢铁行业长期能源转型中投资者的属性、目标和决策过程。它从马哈拉施特拉邦108家运营工厂的现场调查中获取经验数据，为基于主体的模型制定目标和决策指标，并模拟可能的未来投资组合。所研究的决策驱动因素包括资本成本、运营成本（包括燃料消耗）、资本和运营成本的组合以及净现值。当投资者使用资本成本和运营成本的加权组合时，获得了类似于12PJ的天然气吸收量，并在2020年至2050年期间获得了最高的累计减排量，即200万吨二氧化碳。相反，如果仅使用净现值，同期的累计减排量更低，为160万吨二氧化碳，而天然气的累计吸收量等于15PJ。研究结果表明，不同的技术选择的前期投资成本可能会导致高碳燃料，特别是重质燃料油在最终混合物中的流行。结果还表明，燃料转换产业投资者具有独特的异质性，他们的投资目标不同，对成本的预见有限。对脱碳的高资本支出的看法是工业能源转型的重大障碍，应通过有效的政策制定（例如碳政策/价格）来解决。
This paper presents the formulation and application of a novel agent-based integrated assessment approach to model the attributes, objectives and decision-making process of investors in a long-term energy transition in India's iron and steel sector. It takes empirical data from an on-site survey of 108 operating plants in Maharashtra to formulate objectives and decision-making metrics for the agent-based model and simulates possible future portfolio mixes. The studied decision drivers were capital costs, operating costs (including fuel consumption), a combination of capital and operating costs, and net present value. Where investors used a weighted combination of capital cost and operating costs, a natural gas uptake of similar to 12PJ was obtained and the highest cumulative emissions reduction was obtained, 2 Mt CO2 in the period from 2020 to 2050. Conversely if net present value alone is used, cumulative emissions reduction in the same period was lower, 1.6 Mt CO2, and the cumulative uptake of natural gas was equal to 15PJ. Results show how the differing upfront investment cost of the technology options could cause prevalence of high-carbon fuels, particularly heavy fuel oil, in the final mix. Results also represent the unique heterogeneity of fuel-switching industrial investors with distinct investment goals and limited foresight on costs. The perception of high capital expenditures for decarbonisation represents a significant barrier to the energy transition in industry and should be addressed via effective policy making (e.g. carbon policy/price).