Evidence of rising and poleward shift of storm surge in western North Pacific in recent decades
Evidence of rising and poleward shift of storm surge in western North Pacific in recent decades
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DOI：
10.1002/2016jc011777
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发表时间：
2016-07-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Chou, Simon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Oey, Lie-Yauw;Chou, Simon
最近，人们对研究风暴潮引起的极端海平面与气候变化之间的关系产生了很大兴趣。然而，自20世纪70年代中期和80年代初最近一次变暖开始以来，风暴潮极端事件是如何演变的，这一证据还没有得到可靠的证实。在这里，我们使用64年（1950-2013年）的观测和模式模拟，并找到证据的强度显着上升，以及在西北太平洋台风潮的位置极移后，1980年代。上升和向极移动的趋势是由于热带地区的转向气流减弱造成的，这与气候变暖有关，导致台风移动缓慢，持续时间较长，向北移动。
Recently, there has been considerable interest in examining how sea-level extremes due to storm surge may be related to climate change. Evidence of how storm-surge extremes have evolved since the start of the most recent warming of mid-1970s and early 1980s has not been firmly established however. Here we use 64 years (1950-2013) of observations and model simulations, and find evidence of a significant rise in the intensity as well as poleward-shifting of location of typhoon surges in the western North Pacific after 1980s. The rising and poleward-shifting trends are caused by the weakening of the steering flow in the tropics, which is related to climate warming, resulting in slower-moving and longer-lasting typhoons which had shifted northward.