How policy choice affects investment in low-carbon technology: The case of CO2 capture in indirect coal liquefaction in China
How policy choice affects investment in low-carbon technology: The case of CO2 capture in indirect coal liquefaction in China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2014.06.068
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发表时间：
2014-08
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Wenji Zhou;Bing Zhu;Dingjiang Chen;Fangxian Zhao;W. Fei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Wenji Zhou;Bing Zhu;Dingjiang Chen;Fangxian Zhao;W. Fei
提高对低碳技术投资决策的理解，将极大地促进评估碳减排政策的有效性。本文以中国颇具争议的煤炭间接液化技术中碳捕获和封存技术的实施为例，通过构建投资决策过程的实物期权模型，评估了在高度不确定的环境下，不同的气候政策对低碳技术投资者的影响。我们发现，碳税为投资提供了最强烈的信号，基于市场的措施为企业提供了灵活性。此外，不同类型的碳市场对企业行为产生显著不同的影响，二氧化碳价格水平比市场波动或政策实施日期对投资者的影响更大。考虑到中国煤炭资源丰富但欠发达的省份和沿海富裕地区之间的区域差异，我们建议建立一个次国家清洁发展机制(清洁发展机制)来完善当前的国内政策框架，以平衡发展要求和二氧化碳减排，而需要做出额外的行政努力来将当前的二氧化碳信用额度价格提高到有效水平，以扩大碳市场覆盖范围，巩固碳市场基础。
An improved understanding of investment decisions on low-carbon technology will greatly facilitate assessing the effectiveness of carbon emissions mitigation policies. We use the example of implementing CCS (carbon capture and storage) within ICL (indirect coal liquefaction), a controversial technology in China, by constructing a RO (real options) model for the investment decision-making process to assess how different climate policies affect low-carbon technology investors under highly uncertain circumstances. We find that a carbon tax provides the strongest signal for investment and that a market-based measure provides firms with flexibility. Moreover, different types of carbon markets generate substantially different effects on firm behavior, and the CO2price level exerts a more powerful influence on investors than market volatility or the policy's implementation date. Considering the regional disparities among the coal-abundant but less-developed provinces and the affluent coastal regions in China, we suggest that a sub-national CDM (clean development mechanism) would complete the current domestic policy framework to balance the development requirement and CO2abatement, whereas extraordinary administrative efforts are necessary to raise the current price of CO2credits to an effective level, to broaden the carbon market coverage and consolidate the carbon market foundation.