Disease emergence in multi-host epidemic models.
Disease emergence in multi-host epidemic models.
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DOI：
10.1093/imammb/dql021
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发表时间：
2007-03
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. K. McCormack;L. Allen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. K. McCormack;L. Allen
大多数病原体能够感染多个宿主。这些多重宿主为疾病的出现提供了许多途径。在这项调查中，我们制定和分析了多宿主流行病模型，并确定了疾病可能出现的条件。特别是，SIS和SIR流行病模型是针对可以感染不同宿主的病原体制定的。计算基本繁殖数，并显示随着n（可被感染的宿主数量）的增加而增加。因此，疾病出现的可能性随着感染宿主数量的增加而增加。详细研究了双主机的SIS模型。导出了地方性平衡全局稳定的充分必要条件。数值例子说明了两宿主和三宿主流行病模型的动力学。该模型可应用于汉坦病毒在啮齿动物和其他多宿主人畜共患疾病中的传播。
Most pathogens are capable of infecting multiple hosts. These multiple hosts provide many avenues for the disease to emerge. In this investigation, we formulate and analyse multi-host epidemic models and determine conditions under which the disease can emerge. In particular, SIS and SIR epidemic models are formulated for a pathogen that can infect n different hosts. The basic reproduction number is computed and shown to increase with n, the number of hosts that can be infected. Therefore, the possibility of disease emergence increases with the number of hosts infected. The SIS model for two hosts is studied in detail. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for the global stability of an endemic equilibrium. Numerical examples illustrate the dynamics of the two- and three-host epidemic models. The models have applications to hantavirus in rodents and other zoonotic diseases with multiple hosts.