Optimal strategies for stakeholders of Fukushima nuclear waste water discharge in Japan
Optimal strategies for stakeholders of Fukushima nuclear waste water discharge in Japan
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DOI：
10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104881
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发表时间：
2021-11-19
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Wang Yecheng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang Xixi;Qu Tongkun;Wang Yecheng
日本政府拟将福岛核反应堆放射性核废水排入太平洋，将造成不可逆转的灾难性海洋生态污染。针对这种不负责任的做法，国内和国际上都有强烈的反对意见。不过，日本政府的排放决定并未改变。本研究运用演化博弈理论，构建了日本政府、利益相关国和国内公众在核废水排放问题上的最优战略行为的博弈模型，通过分析三方决策者的利益，探索了战略组合的稳定均衡点。结果表明：首先，利益相关国家的参与将防止日本政府违反海洋环境政策。这将确保安全解决日本核废水事件。第二，日本公众的参与可以起到协同监管的作用。然而，也存在搭便车现象的可能性。第三，日本政府的策略选择主要与核废水处理装置成本、核废水储存成本等因素有关。最后，提出了促进利益相关国和国内民众有效监督的相关对策和建议。也促使日本政府遵守海洋环境政策。研究利益有关者的战略选择可以影响在当前形势下制定国际海洋环境政策的建议。
The Japanese government intends to discharge radioactive nuclear waste water from the Fukushima nuclear reactor into the Pacific Ocean, which will cause irreversible and catastrophic ocean ecological pollution. In response to this irresponsible practice, there are strong domestic and international objections. However, the Japanese government's decision to discharge has not been changed. This study uses evolutionary game theory to construct a game model of the optimal strategic behavior of the Japanese government, stakeholder countries, and the domestic public in the proposed nuclear waste water discharge and explores the stable equilibrium point of the strategy combination by analyzing the interests of the three decision makers. The results are shown as follows: first, the participation of stakeholder countries will prevent the Japanese government from violating the marine environmental policy. This will ensure a safe resolution of the nuclear waste water incident in Japan. Second, the participation of the Japanese public can serve as a synergistic regulation. However, there is also a possibility of a free-rider phenomenon. Third, the strategy choice of the Japanese government is mainly related to factors such as the cost of nuclear waste water treatment devices and the storage cost of nuclear waste water. Lastly, relevant countermeasures and recommendations are put forward to promote effective monitoring by stakeholder countries and domestic people. It also promotes the Japanese government to abide by the marine environmental policy. Studying the strategic choices of stakeholders can influence recommendations for the formulation of international marine environmental policies under the current situation.