Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts
Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts
复制标题
对降水概率预报的误解
DOI：
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发表时间：
1980
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. L. Winkler
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. H. Murphy;S. Lichtenstein;Baruch Fischhoff;R. L. Winkler
摘要以前的研究表明，公众误解了降水概率（PoP）预测，导致一些气象学家认为，概率不应该包括在公共天气预报。然而，经过仔细研究，这些研究证明是模糊的性质方面的误解。公众是否对概率的含义或概率所指事件的定义感到困惑？如果事件误解是混淆的根源，那么消除概率并不能降低误解的程度。本文总结了一项对俄勒冈州尤金79名居民的研究，他们完成了一份调查问卷，旨在调查他们对降水概率预报的理解和态度。结果表明，有问题的事件经常被误解，传统的降水预报和PoP预报产生类似水平的事件误解。
Abstract Previous studies have suggested that the general public misinterprets probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts, leading some meteorologists to argue that probabilities should not be included in public weather forecasts. Upon closer examination, however, these studies prove to be ambiguous with regard to the nature of the misunderstanding. Is the public confused about the meaning of the probabilities or about the definition of the event to which the probabilities refer? If event misinterpretation is the source of the confusion, then elimination of the probabilities would not reduce the level of misunderstanding. The present paper summarizes a study of 79 residents of Eugene, Oreg., who completed a questionnaire designed to investigate their understanding of and attitude toward precipitation probability forecasts. Results indicate that the event in question frequently is misunderstood, with both traditional precipitation forecasts and PoP forecasts producing similar levels of event misinterpret...