The lags of monetary policy
The lags of monetary policy
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1475-4932.1999.tb02456.x
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发表时间：
1999-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.2
通讯作者：
Chandra, N
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gruen, D;Romalis, J;Chandra, N
多年来，从货币政策到产出的传导滞后的长度一直是许多研究的主题，但要精确地分离滞后存在严重的问题。本文使用一个简单的澳大利亚产出模型来估计滞后的长度，然后研究如何试图解决估计问题可能会改变结果。我们估计，在短期真实的利率上升一个百分点后，产出增长福尔斯在第一年和第二年都会下降约三分之一，第三年下降约六分之一。这意味着货币政策对产出增长的影响平均滞后约五到六个季度。然而，这些估计数中的每一个都有相当大的不确定性。我们将讨论这些相对较长且不确定的滞后对政策的影响。最后，我们没有发现任何证据表明，从货币政策到产出增长的平均滞后在20世纪90年代变得更短。
The length of the transmission lags from monetary policy to output has been the subject of much research over the years, bur there are serious problems in isolating the lags with any precision. This paper uses a simple model of Australian output to estimate the length of the lags, and then examines how attempts to grapple with the estimation problems might change the results.We estimate that output growth falls by about one-third of one pet cent in both the first and second years after a one percentage point rise in the short-term real interest rate, and by about one-sixth of one per cent in the third year. This implies an average lag of about five or six quarters in monetary policy's impact on output growth. Each of these estimates is, however, subject to considerable uncertainty. We discuss the implications far policy of these relatively long and uncertain lags. Finally, we find no evidence that the average lag from monetary policy to output growth has become any shorter in the 1990s.