Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay
Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay
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DOI：
10.1111/jam.12624
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发表时间：
2014-11-01
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Wood, R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jacobs, J. M.;Rhodes, M.;Wood, R.
目的构建统计模型来预测切萨皮克湾地表水中创伤弧菌的存在、丰度和潜在毒力，以便在生态预测系统中实施。方法和结果我们结合国家水质监测计划，对 2007-2010 年从切萨皮克湾收集的水样 (n=1636) 进行了评估和应用之前发布的 qPCR 检测。为了开发用于区域海洋学建模系统的强大预测模型，协同使用了各种统计技术来确定与创伤弧菌存在、丰度和毒力标记相关的水质参数。提供了一套模型来代表使用环境变量的最佳模型拟合和替代方案，使它们能够立即用于当前的生态预测工作。结论温度、盐度和浊度等环境参数能够准确预测切萨皮克湾创伤弧菌的丰度和分布。利用海洋建模系统的输出强制这些经验模型可以对未来长达 48 小时进行空间明确的预测。这项研究的意义和影响这项研究使用了最大的数据集之一来模拟河口的弧菌，增强了我们对环境与潜在毒力菌株的丰度、分布和存在的相关性的理解，并提供了一种预测这些可能在其他地区复制的病原体的方法。
AimTo construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters of Chesapeake Bay for implementation in ecological forecasting systems.Methods and ResultsWe evaluated and applied previously published qPCR assays to water samples (n=1636) collected from Chesapeake Bay from 2007-2010 in conjunction with State water quality monitoring programmes. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V.vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts.ConclusionsEnvironmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V.vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48h in the future.Significance and Impact of the StudyThis study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.