A data-driven assessment of early travel restrictions related to the spreading of the novel COVID-19 within mainland China.
A data-driven assessment of early travel restrictions related to the spreading of the novel COVID-19 within mainland China.
复制标题
对与新型冠状病毒 (COVID-19) 在中国大陆传播相关的早期旅行限制的数据驱动评估
DOI：
10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110068
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发表时间：
2020-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Moreno, Yamir
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Aleta, Alberto;Hu, Qitong;Moreno, Yamir
在首次报道两个月后，新型冠状病毒疾病COVID-19在全球范围内蔓延。然而，截至2月，报告的绝大多数感染发生在中国。为了评估中国卫生部门采取的早期旅行限制措施的影响，我们实施了一个流行病集合种群模型，该模型以2019年和2020年的流动性数据为基础。这就可以比较两种截然不同的情况，一种是没有旅行限制，另一种是旅行禁令减少了流动性。我们的研究结果表明，i）旅行限制在短期内可能是一种有效的措施，然而，ii）当涉及到完全消除这种疾病时，它们是无效的。后者是由于不可能消除将疾病传播到其他地区的风险。此外，我们的研究强调了在疾病爆发时开发更现实的行为变化模型的重要性。
Two months after it was firstly reported, the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 spread worldwide. However, the vast majority of reported infections until February occurred in China. To assess the effect of early travel restrictions adopted by the health authorities in China, we have implemented an epidemic metapopulation model that is fed with mobility data corresponding to 2019 and 2020. This allows to compare two radically different scenarios, one with no travel restrictions and another in which mobility is reduced by a travel ban. Our findings indicate that i) travel restrictions might be an effective measure in the short term, however, ii) they are ineffective when it comes to completely eliminate the disease. The latter is due to the impossibility of removing the risk of seeding the disease to other regions. Furthermore, our study highlights the importance of developing more realistic models of behavioral changes when a disease outbreak is unfolding.