Coronavirus and Migration: Analysis of Human Mobility and the Spread of COVID-19
Coronavirus and Migration: Analysis of Human Mobility and the Spread of COVID-19
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DOI：
10.33182/ml.v17i2.935
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发表时间：
2020-04-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Yucesahin, M. Murat
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sirkeci, Ibrahim;Yucesahin, M. Murat
世界各地应对当前疫情的反应、措施和话语差异很大。虽然有些国家被完全封锁，如意大利，但有些国家声称到2020年3月10日，土耳其和印度尼西亚的病例很少或没有病例。然而，来自中国的COVID-19传播显然与来自中国中部湖北省武汉市的旅行者有关。因此，重要的是要了解旅客的运输密度/数量，以及从武汉到中国各地相连的主要区域航空旅行枢纽的航线。在这项研究中，我们开发了一个关于迁移和碎片强度的模型，可以解释COVID-19自2019年底出现以来的爆发和传播。我们发现，在与其他几个宏观因素相互作用的情况下，中国血统的移民种群和中国的移民种群的存在是预测全球疫情传播的有用指标。我们认为，根据人类流动走廊（即来源地和目的地）监测移民存量数据和旅行量数据，各国本可以更好地准备并采取早期措施来遏制COVID-19的传播。
Reactions, measures as well as discourses dealing with the current pandemic vary significantly across the world. While some countries were completely locked down, as was the case in Italy, some had claimed to have very few or no cases, as was the case in Turkey and Indonesia by March 10th, 2020. Nevertheless, the spread of COVID-19 from China has been clearly linked to those travelling from Wuhan in Hubei province in Central China. Therefore, it is important to understand the fravel density/volume of passengers carried as well as routes from Wuhan through connected main regional air travel hubs across China. In this study, we developed a model on migration and fravel intensity that can explain outbreak and spread of COVID-19 since it appeared at the end of 2019. We show that the presence of migrant stock populations of Chinese origin and the immigrant stock in China are useful indicators in the prediction of the spread of the outbreak worldwide in the event of interaction with several other macro factors. We argue that monitoring immigrant stock data and travel volume data based on human mobility corridors (i.e. origins and destinations), countries could have been better prepared and taken early measures to contain the spread of COVID-19.