Searching for an Appropriate Exchange Rate Regime
Searching for an Appropriate Exchange Rate Regime
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寻找合适的汇率制度
DOI：
10.11644/kiep.jeai.2001.5.1.80
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发表时间：
2001
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
D. Yang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yunjong Wang;D. Yang
本文试图对当前关于新兴市场经济体汇率制度选择的争论进行综述。自最近的亚洲金融危机以来，汇率制度的选择问题一直是人们讨论的热点。本文试图对当前新兴市场经济体关于汇率制度选择的争论进行综述。自最近的亚洲金融危机以来，人们一直在积极讨论选择合适的汇率制度的问题。从最近的危机中吸取的教训是，一个被广泛接受的结论是，在一个资本流动不稳定的世界里，软性盯住汇率制度是极其脆弱的。因此，基于不可能的三位一体假设的新正统理论倾向于两个角落的解决方案--更大的灵活性或可信的制度保证，如货币发行局制度或美元化。然而，最近出现了一些问题，即这样的角落解决方案是否足以满足发展中国家的需求。在名义上实行自由浮动汇率制度的许多发展中国家，“对浮动汇率的恐惧”仍然很明显。发展中国家对汇率波动很敏感，因为与发达国家相比，汇率波动的代价大于收益。监测波幅是一种折衷的解决办法，但仍需进一步加强对基本均衡汇率的估计技术，以使这些估计结果在实践中更加可行。其他替代方案包括建立G3货币的软盯住机制。尽管有相反的论点，但事实可能证明，G-3货币的稳定对新兴市场经济体是有利的。
This paper attempts to survey current debates on the choice of exchange rate regime in emerging market economies. The issue of choosing an appropriate exchange rate regime is being actively discussed since the recent Asian crisiThis paper attempts to survey current debates on the choice of exchange rate regime in emerging market economies. The issue of choosing an appropriate exchange rate regime is being actively discussed since the recent Asian crisis. As a lesson from the recent crises, one widely shared conclusion is that soft peg exchange rate regimes are extremely vulnerable in a world of volatile capital movements. Consequently, new orthodoxy based on the impossible trinity hypothesis favours two corner solutions ― greater flexibility or credible institutional assurance, like a currency board system or dollarization. Nevertheless, questions whether such corner solutions are adequate for developing countries are rising of late. "Fear of floating" is still conspicuous in many developing countries having adopted nominally a free-floating exchange rate regime. Developing countries are sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations because the cost of exchange rate volatility is greater than the benefit when compared to developed countries. Monitoring bands is a compromise solution, but it still needs further enhancement of estimation techniques for fundamental equilibrium exchange rates in order to make those estimation results more workable in practice. Other alternatives include the creation of soft peg of the G-3 currencies. Despite counterarguments, the stability of G-3 currencies could prove to be beneficial to emerging market economies.