Global Warming and Coastal Erosion
Global Warming and Coastal Erosion
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DOI：
10.1023/b:clim.0000024690.32682.48
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发表时间：
2004-05
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Keqi Zhang;B. Douglas;S. Leatherman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Keqi Zhang;B. Douglas;S. Leatherman
全球变暖最明显的后果之一是全球海平面上升（海平面上升）。海平面上升导致的洪水将严重影响低洼地区；至少有 1 亿人生活在平均海平面一米以内，并且在未来几十年面临更大的风险。一些岛国和三角洲海岸的生存受到海平面上升的威胁。影响一些最发达和经济价值最高的房地产的另一个威胁将来自沙滩侵蚀的加剧。随着海滩的消失，附近的固定结构越来越多地受到风暴海浪的直接影响，除非采取昂贵的保护措施，否则最终将被损坏或摧毁。长期以来，人们一直推测，长期沙滩侵蚀的潜在速度比海平面上升的速度高两个数量级，因此海平面的任何显着上升都会对沿海居民造成可怕的后果。我们在本文中提出了一种分析方法，表明长期沙滩侵蚀与海平面上升之间存在高度乘性关联，并使用大型且一致的海岸线位置现场数据数据库来表明，与 19 世纪和 20 世纪海平面和海岸侵蚀的观测结果存在合理的定量一致性。这一结果意味着，在可能的全球变暖情景下，20世纪已经严重的海岸侵蚀问题将在21世纪加剧。
One of the most certain consequences of global warming is an increase of global (eustatic) sea level. The resulting inundation from rising seas will heavily impact low-lying areas; at least 100 million persons live within one meter of mean sea level and are at increased risk in the coming decades. The very existence of some island states and deltaic coasts is threatened by sea level rise. An additional threat affecting some of the most heavily developed and economically valuable real estate will come from an exacerbation of sandy beach erosion. As the beach is lost, fixed structures nearby are increasingly exposed to the direct impact of storm waves, and will ultimately be damaged or destroyed unless expensive protective measures are taken. It has long been speculated that the underlying rate of long-term sandy beach erosion istwo orders of magnitude greaterthan the rate of rise of sea level, so that any significant increase of sea level has dire consequences for coastal inhabitants. We present in this paper an analytical treatment that indicates there is a highly multiplicative association between long-term sandy beach erosion and sea level rise, and use a large and consistent data base of shoreline position field data to show that there is reasonable quantitative agreement with observations of 19th and 20th century sea levels and coastal erosion. This result means that the already-severe coastal erosion problems witnessed in the 20th century will be exacerbated in the 21st century under plausible global warming scenarios.