A Dynamic Programming Model of Retirement Behavior
A Dynamic Programming Model of Retirement Behavior
复制标题
退休行为的动态规划模型
DOI：
10.3386/w2470
复制
发表时间：
1987
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
John Rust
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
John Rust
本文基于随机动态规划问题的解决方案制定了退休行为模型。工人的目标是在他的余生中最大化预期贴现效用。在每个时间段，工人选择消费多少以及是全职、兼职还是退出劳动力市场。该模型考虑了退休决策问题的顺序性，以及不确定的未来变量的预期的作用，例如工人的未来寿命、健康状况、婚姻和家庭状况、就业状况，以及就业收入、资产和社会保障退休金、残疾和医疗保险付款。本文应用“嵌套不动点”算法，将动态规划问题转换为重复重新计算不动点到收缩映射算子的问题，作为标准非线性最大似然程序的子程序。本文的目标是证明可以使用该算法和当前一代超级计算机 Cray-2 来估计退休问题的相当复杂且现实的公式。
This paper formulates a model of retirement behavior based on the solution to a stochastic dynamic programming problem. The workers objective is to maximize expected discounted utility over his remaining lifetime. At each time period the worker chooses how much to consume and whether to work full-time, part-time, or exit the labor force. The model accounts for the sequential nature f the retirement decision problem, and the role of expectations of uncertain future variables such as the worker's future lifespan, health status, marital and family status, employment status, as well as earnings from employment, assets, and social security retirement, disability and medicare payments. This paper applies a "nested fixed point" algorithm that converts the dynamic programming problem into the problem of repeatedly recomputing the fixed point to a contraction mapping operator as a subroutine of a standard nonlinear maximum likelihood program. The goal of the paper is to demonstrate that a fairly complex and realistic formulation of the retirement problem can be estimated using this algorithm and a current generation supercomputer, the Cray-2.