Evaluation and validation of TAMSAT -ALERT soil moisture and WRSI for use in drought anticipatory action
Evaluation and validation of TAMSAT -ALERT soil moisture and WRSI for use in drought anticipatory action
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TAMSAT -ALERT 土壤湿度和 WRSI 用于干旱预测行动的评估和验证
DOI：
10.1002/met.1959
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Boult V
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Boult V
关于干旱可能性的可靠信息对农业规划和人道主义决策至关重要。根据对干旱的概率性预测而不是对普遍的干旱状况采取行动，有可能挽救生命、生计和资源，但也有可能徒劳无功。本文件评估了一种新的预测工具的适用性，即它是否有能力在允许采取预期行动的时间范围内提供有关干旱对作物和牧场影响的可能性的熟练信息。使用卫星数据的热带气象应用-预警系统（TAMSAT‐ALERT）工具提供了季节平均土壤湿度和需水量满足指数（WRSI）的预报。TAMSAT-ALERT指标与肯尼亚的牧草可用性和玉米产量密切相关，并在关键季节早期提供了熟练的预测，为准备行动提供了充足的时间。以分层的方式发布TAMSAT-ALERT预报，由时空变化的触发因素触发行动，并从根本上由人道主义行为者提供信息，将提供有关干旱可能性的可靠信息，最终缓解粮食不安全状况。
Reliable information on the likelihood of drought is of crucial importance in agricultural planning and humanitarian decision‐making. Acting based upon probabilistic forecasts of drought, rather than responding to prevailing drought conditions, has the potential to save lives, livelihoods and resources, but is accompanied by the risk of acting in vain. The suitability of a novel forecasting tool is assessed in the present paper in terms of its ability to provide skilful information of the likelihood of drought impacts on crops and pasture within a timeframe that allows for anticipatory action. The Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite data—AgriculturaL Early waRning sysTem (TAMSAT‐ALERT) tool provides forecasts of seasonal mean soil moisture and the water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI). TAMSAT‐ALERT metrics were found to be strongly correlated with pasture availability and maize yield in Kenya and provided skilful forecasts early in key seasons, allowing sufficient time for preparatory actions. Incorporating TAMSAT‐ALERT forecasts in a layered approach, with actions triggered by spatiotemporally varying triggers and fundamentally informed by humanitarian actors, will provide reliable information on the likelihood of drought, ultimately mitigating food insecurity.