Modelling aggregate domestic electricity demand in Ghana: An autoregressive distributed lag bounds cointegration approach
Modelling aggregate domestic electricity demand in Ghana: An autoregressive distributed lag bounds cointegration approach
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2011.12.019
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发表时间：
2012-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Akoena, Sesi Kutri Komla
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Adom, Philip Kofi;Bekoe, William;Akoena, Sesi Kutri Komla
尽管各国政府为解决电力部门现有的供需缺口做出了不同的供应促进努力，但国内总电力需求的持续增长使这些努力付之东流。作为一个目标，本文试图找出导致国内总电力需求历史增长趋势的因素，并利用ARDL界协整方法和1975-2005年的样本期间量化它们在短期和长期的影响。长远而言，实质人均本地生产总值、行业效率、经济结构转变，以及城市化程度，被确定为本地总电力需求历史增长趋势背后的主要推动力。然而，在短期内，实际人均GDP、行业效率和城市化程度是国内总电力需求的主要驱动因素。行业效率是推动国内总电力需求下降的唯一因素。然而，负面的效率效应不足以盖过正面的收入、产出和人口效应，因此国内总电力需求持续增长。作为一种政策选择，我们建议在行业层面实施适当的电力效率标准。(C)2011爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
In spite of the varying supply boosting efforts made by various governments to deal with the existing demand-supply gap in the electricity sector, the incessant growth in aggregate domestic electricity demand has made these efforts futile. As an objective, this paper attempts to identify the factors responsible for the historical growth trends in aggregate domestic electricity demand quantifying their effects both in the short-run and long-run periods using the ARDL Bounds cointegration approach and the sample period 1975 to 2005. In the long-run, real per capita GDP, industry efficiency, structural changes in the economy, and degree of urbanisation are identified as the main driving force behind the historical growth trend in aggregate domestic electricity demand. However, in the short-run, real per capita GDP, industry efficiency, and degree of urbanisation are the main drivers of aggregate domestic electricity demand. Industry efficiency is the only factor that drives aggregate domestic electricity demand downwards. However, the negative efficiency effect is insufficient to have outweighed the positive income, output, and demographic effects, hence the continual growth in aggregate domestic electricity demand. As a policy option, we recommend that appropriate electricity efficiency standards be implemented at the industry level. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.