Comparing the benefits of screening for breast cancer and lung cancer using a novel natural history model.
Comparing the benefits of screening for breast cancer and lung cancer using a novel natural history model.
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DOI：
10.1007/s10552-011-9866-9
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发表时间：
2012-01
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Plevritis, Sylvia K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lin, Ray S.;Plevritis, Sylvia K.
关键词：
为了评估早期发现癌症的影响，了解原发性肿瘤生长的速度以及它们以多大的尺寸脱落致命转移是至关重要的。我们开发了一个癌症的自然史模型，以估计作为肿瘤大小、肿瘤体积倍增时间（TVDT）和通过筛查可实现的疾病特异性死亡率降低的函数的疾病特异性治愈概率。该模型分别应用于非小细胞肺癌（NSCLC）和浸润性导管癌（IDC）。模型参数估计值基于监测流行病学和最终结果（SEER）癌症登记数据集，并在筛选试验中得到验证。与IDC相比，估计NSCLC在相同检测到的肿瘤尺寸下具有较低的疾病特异性治愈概率，在较小尺寸下脱落致死性转移（中位数：IDC为19 mm，NSCLC为8 mm），TVDT几乎是IDC的一半（中位数：IDC为252天，NSCLC为134天）。因此，在相同的筛查检测阈值和筛查间隔下，NSCLC与较低的筛查死亡率降低相关。总之，使用一个类似的自然历史模型的癌症，我们量化的疾病特异性可治愈性归因于筛查乳腺癌，分别肺癌，在TVDT和致命的转移的发病。
To estimate the impact of early detection of cancer, knowledge of how quickly primary tumors grow and at what size they shed lethal metastases is critical. We developed a natural history model of cancer to estimate the probability of disease-specific cure as a function of tumor size, the tumor volume doubling time (TVDT) and disease-specific mortality reduction achievable by screening. The model was applied to non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC) and invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC), separately. Model parameter estimates were based on Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) cancer registry datasets and validated on screening trials. Compared to IDC, NSCLC is estimated to have a lower probability of disease-specific cure at the same detected tumor size, shed lethal metastases at smaller sizes (median: 19mm for IDC vs. 8 mm for NSCLC), have a TVDT that is almost half as long (median: 252 days for IDC vs. 134 days for NSCLC). Consequently, NSCLC is associated with a lower mortality reduction from screening at the same screen detection threshold and screening interval. In summary, using a similar natural history model of cancer, we quantify the disease-specific curability attributable to screening for breast cancer, and separately lung cancer, in terms of the TVDT and onset of lethal metastases.
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影响因子：
45.3
作者：
Cristofanilli, M;Hayes, DF;Terstappen, LWMM
通讯作者：
Terstappen, LWMM
影响因子：
158.5
作者：
Cristofanilli, M;Budd, GT;Hayes, DF
通讯作者：
Hayes, DF
DOI：
10.1093/jnci/djj207
发表时间：
2006-06-07
期刊：
JOURNAL OF THE NATIONAL CANCER INSTITUTE
影响因子：
--
作者：
Marcus, PM;Bergstralh, EJ;Fontana, RS
通讯作者：
Fontana, RS
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Cronin, KA;Yu, BB;Feuer, EJ
通讯作者：
Feuer, EJ
肿瘤生长的动力学。
影响因子：
8.8
作者：
LAIRD, A K
通讯作者：
LAIRD, A K