Unemployment and Inflation: Implication on Poverty Level in Nigeria
Unemployment and Inflation: Implication on Poverty Level in Nigeria
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失业和通货膨胀：对尼日利亚贫困水平的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
James Ademola Adolphus
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Peter Siyan;A. Adegoriola;James Ademola Adolphus
本研究旨在实证检验1980-2014年间尼日利亚失业和通货膨胀对贫困水平的影响。本文使用了三个变量，即贫困水平、失业率和通货膨胀率。这些变量经过单位根检验，它们在第一差I(1)时都是平稳的。使用Johansen检验，变量在5%的显著水平上是协整的。利用向量自回归(VAR)模型确定变量间的短期关系，并根据滞后选择准则选择第四个滞后。利用VAR残差的Cholesky分解得到预测误差方差分解(FEVD)。结果表明，贫困、通货膨胀和失业率变化的比例归因于它们各自的滞后值。利用VAR模型进行格兰杰因果关系检验，结果表明通货膨胀与贫困之间存在双因果关系。失业率和贫困之间存在双向因果关系。失业率和通货膨胀率之间存在单向因果关系。根据结论，它建议，由于失业导致尼日利亚的贫困，政府应审查教育课程，在教育系统中纳入实用技能获取方案，以便培养出雇佣劳动力的毕业生，而不是求职者。政府应该鼓励生产商增加国内产量，从而压低价格水平。尼日利亚政府应该通过制定和实施社会保障等减贫计划来努力降低贫困水平，这将降低通货膨胀和失业率，并将促进经济增长。
This study is carried out to empirically examine the implication of unemployment and inflation on poverty level in Nigeria from 1980-2014. Three variables are used in this paper which are Poverty level, Unemployment Rate and Inflation Rate. The variables were subjected to unit root test and they were all stationary at first difference I(1). Using the Johansen test, the variables were found to be co-integrated at 5% level of significance. Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) Model was used to determine the short-run relationship between the variables and the forth lag was selected based on the lag selection criterion. Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) was obtained using the cholesky decomposition of the VAR residual. The result obtained showed the proportion of the variations in Poverty, inflation and unemployment rate attributed to their respective lag values. Granger causality test was carried out from the VAR model, and the result indicated that there is a bi-causality between inflation and poverty. There is two-way causality between unemployment rate and poverty. There is one-way causality between unemployment rate and inflation rate. From the conclusion, it recommended that since unemployment causes poverty in Nigeria, government should review the education curriculum which will include practical skill acquisition programme in the educational system so as to produce graduates that are employers of labour rather than employment seekers. The government should give incentives to producers to enable them increase domestic production which will bring down price level. Nigerian government should strive to reduce poverty level by formulating and implementing poverty reduction programme like social security which will reduce inflation and unemployment rate and will lead to economic growth.