Measuring the long-term effects of public policy: the case of narcotics use and property crime
Measuring the long-term effects of public policy: the case of narcotics use and property crime
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衡量公共政策的长期影响：毒品使用和财产犯罪案例
DOI：
10.1287/mnsc.37.6.627
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发表时间：
1991
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
M. Anglin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Powers;D. Hanssens;Y. Hser;M. Anglin
治疗和法律的监督对麻醉品使用和犯罪活动的影响进行了评估，通过应用新开发的时间序列方法，解开长期（永久）和短期（临时）干预的影响。一个多变量系统的方法被用来描述在一个组的水平上，在很长一段时间内的几个相关的行为的动态相互作用。五个变量-从麻醉品的使用，日常麻醉品的使用（或成瘾），财产犯罪，美沙酮维持治疗，和法律的监督-从600个平均12年的麻醉品成瘾史汇总信息。由于评估时间较长，年龄也被纳入作为控制变量。总体而言，系统动态的变量之间的特点是长期的，而不是短期的关系。美沙酮维持治疗和法律的监督对麻醉品使用和财产犯罪都没有短期影响。美沙酮维持治疗通过减少麻醉品使用和犯罪活动显示出长期效益。另一方面，从长远来看，法律的监督并没有减少麻醉品的使用或财产犯罪。相反，存在着一种积极的长期关系，即较高水平的法律的监督与较高水平的麻醉品使用和犯罪活动有关。后一项调查结果与以下看法是一致的，即吸毒或犯罪活动都可能引起法律的系统的注意。然而，这些成瘾者，作为一个群体，没有直接回应法律的监督，改变他们的麻醉品使用或犯罪参与，除非可能通过胁迫治疗。本文探讨了这些研究结果的政策含义。
The effects of treatment and legal supervision on narcotics use and criminal activities were assessed by applying newly developed time-series methods that disentangle the long-term (permanent) and the short-term (temporary) effects of intervention. A multivariate systems approach was used to characterize the dynamic interplay of several related behaviors at a group level over a long period of time. Five variables---abstinence from narcotics use, daily narcotics use (or addiction), property crime, methadone maintenance treatment, and legal supervision---were derived by aggregating information from over 600 narcotic addiction histories averaging 12 years in length. Because of the long assessment period, age was also included as a control variable. Overall, the system dynamics among the variables were characterized by long-term rather than short-term relationships. Neither methadone maintenance nor legal supervision had short-term effects on narcotics use or property crime. Methadone maintenance treatment demonstrated long-term benefits by reducing narcotics use and criminal activities. Legal supervision, on the other hand, did not reduce either narcotics use or property crime in the long run. Instead, there was a positive long-term relationship in which a higher level of legal supervision was related to higher levels of narcotics use and criminal activity. This latter finding is consistent with the observation that either narcotics use or criminal activity is likely to bring addicts to the attention of the legal system. However, these addicts, as a group, did not directly respond to legal supervision by changing their narcotics use or crime involvement except perhaps through coerced treatment. The paper explores the policy implications of these findings.
DARP 后续项目中成瘾者的法律地位和长期结果。
DOI：
--
发表时间：
1988
期刊：
NIDA research monograph
影响因子：
--
作者：
Simpson,DD;Friend,HJ
通讯作者：
Friend,HJ