Is the 1918 influenza pandemic over?: Long-term effects of in utero influenza exposure in the post-1940 US population
Is the 1918 influenza pandemic over?: Long-term effects of in utero influenza exposure in the post-1940 US population
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DOI：
10.1086/507154
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发表时间：
2006-08-01
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Almond, Douglas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Almond, Douglas
本文将1918年的流感大流行作为一项自然实验，用以检验胎儿起源假说。这场大流行在1918年秋季意外爆发，并在1919年1月基本消退，这为长期影响带来了明确的预测。来自1960 - 1980年美国十年一次人口普查的数据表明，与其他出生队列相比，在大流行期间处于子宫内的队列显示出受教育程度降低、身体残疾率上升、收入更低、社会经济地位更低以及转移支付更高的情况。这些结果表明，对胎儿健康的投入可以增加人力资本。
This paper uses the 1918 influenza pandemic as a natural experiment for testing the fetal origins hypothesis. The pandemic arrived unexpectedly in the fall of 1918 and had largely subsided by January 1919, generating sharp predictions for long-term effects. Data from the 1960-80 decennial U. S. Census indicate that cohorts in utero during the pandemic displayed reduced educational attainment, increased rates of physical disability, lower income, lower socioeconomic status, and higher transfer payments compared with other birth cohorts. These results indicate that investments in fetal health can increase human capital.