Recent adverse mortality trends in Scotland: comparison with other high-income countries
Recent adverse mortality trends in Scotland: comparison with other high-income countries
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DOI：
10.1136/bmjopen-2019-029936
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发表时间：
2019-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
McCartney, Gerry
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fenton, Lynda;Minton, Jon;McCartney, Gerry
近年来，几个高收入国家的预期寿命增长出现了停滞。在过去的70年里，苏格兰的预期寿命一直低于许多其他高收入国家。奥地利、克罗地亚、捷克共和国、丹麦、英格兰和威尔士、爱沙尼亚、法国、德国、匈牙利、冰岛、以色列、日本、韩国、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、荷兰、北方爱尔兰、波兰、苏格兰、斯洛伐克、西班牙、瑞典、西班牙、瑞典、瑞典、瑞士、瑞士、瑞典、瑞士方法我们使用人类死亡率数据库（HMD）的预期寿命数据，计算1992年至2016年5年间24个高收入国家的平均预期寿命变化。使用线性回归来评估2011年的预期寿命与随后5年的平均预期寿命变化之间的关联。使用一次和两次分段回归模型来检验1990年至2018年期间苏格兰死亡率变化的时间。结果2012-2016年预期寿命的平均改善在女性中最小（
Objective Gains in life expectancy have faltered in several high-income countries in recent years. Scotland has consistently had a lower life expectancy than many other high-income countries over the past 70 years. We aim to compare life expectancy trends in Scotland to those seen internationally and to assess the timing and importance of any recent changes in mortality trends for Scotland.Setting Austria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, England and Wales, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Israel, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Poland, Scotland, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and USA.Methods We used life expectancy data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) to calculate the mean annual life expectancy change for 24 high-income countries over 5-year periods from 1992 to 2016. Linear regression was used to assess the association between life expectancy in 2011 and mean life expectancy change over the subsequent 5 years. One-break and two-break segmented regression models were used to test the timing of mortality rate changes in Scotland between 1990 and 2018.Results Mean improvements in life expectancy in 2012-2016 were smallest among women (