ARSENIC IN DRINKING-WATER AND MORTALITY FROM VASCULAR-DISEASE - AN ECOLOGIC ANALYSIS IN 30 COUNTIES IN THE UNITED-STATES
ARSENIC IN DRINKING-WATER AND MORTALITY FROM VASCULAR-DISEASE - AN ECOLOGIC ANALYSIS IN 30 COUNTIES IN THE UNITED-STATES
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DOI：
10.1080/00039896.1994.9954996
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发表时间：
1994-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
SMITH, AH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
ENGEL, RR;SMITH, AH
长期摄入砷会导致血管疾病。在美国，饮用水中砷对血管的不良影响尚未得到研究。本研究调查了1968-1984年美国30个县的公共饮用水中按人口加权的平均砷浓度与循环系统疾病死亡率之间的生态关系。平均砷水平为5.4mU/g/L~91.5mU/g/L。动脉、小动脉、毛细血管疾病标化死亡率(ICD8/9版，440~448)女性为1.9(90%可信区间=1.7~2.1)，男性为1.6(90%CI=1.5~1.8)。DAAC的三个亚组--动脉硬化、主动脉瘤和所有其他DAAC的SMR均有升高的趋势。对于同一砷组，先天性心脏畸形(ICD-8/9,746/745-746)和循环系统畸形(ICD-8/9,747)的SMR也有升高的趋势。两种相互矛盾的解释成为可能：要么是由于无效的结果数据导致的虚假关联，要么是因果关联。
Chronic arsenic consumption can cause vascular diseases. Adverse vascular effects of arsenic in drinking water in the United States have not been studied. This study investigated the ecological relationship between the population-weighted mean arsenic concentration in public drinking water supplies and mortality from circulatory diseases in 30 U.S. counties from 1968 to 1984. Mean arsenic levels ranged from 5.4 to 91.5 mu g/l. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for diseases of arteries, arterioles, and capillaries (DAAC) (ICD 8th/9th revision, 440-448) for counties exceeding 20 mu g/l were 1.9 (90% confidence interval [CI] = 1.7-2.1) for females and 1.6 (90% CI = 1.5-1.8) for males. The SMRs for the three subgroups of DAAC-arteriosclerosis, aortic aneurysm, and all other DAAC-tended to be elevated. With respect to the same arsenic group, the SMRs for congenital anomalies of the heart (ICD-8/9, 746/745-746) and circulatory system (ICD-8/9, 747) also tended to be elevated. Two competing interpretations emerge as possibilities: either there are spurious associations resulting from invalid outcome data or causal associations.