Global recording rates for large eruptions
Global recording rates for large eruptions
复制标题
全球大规模喷发记录率
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
K. Cashman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Rougier;S. Sparks;K. Cashman
一个非参数统计方法是用来评估全球记录率的大型（M4+）成层火山喷发在一个现代化的数据库，LaMEVE（v3.1）。这种方法对记录速率随时间的形状施加了最小的结构。我们发现，记录率迅速下降，时间倒退。1600年之前，它们低于50%，1100年之前，它们低于20%。即使在最近的过去，例如19世纪，它们也可能低于100%。由于事件稀少，对超大型（M5+）喷发的评估更加不确定。
A non-parametric statistical approach is used to assess the global recording rate for large (M4+) stratovolcano eruptions in a modern database, LaMEVE (v3.1). This approach imposes minimal structure on the shape of the recording rate through time. We find that recording rates have declined rapidly, going backwards in time. Prior to the year 1600 they are below 50 %, and prior to 1100 they are below 20 %. Even in the recent past, e.g. the 1800s, they are likely to be less than 100 %. The assessment for very large (M5+) eruptions is more uncertain, due to the scarcity of events.