PWV Inversion Model Based on Random Forest and the Trend of Its Conversion Rate with Precipitation in Hubei from 1960 to 2020
PWV Inversion Model Based on Random Forest and the Trend of Its Conversion Rate with Precipitation in Hubei from 1960 to 2020
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DOI：
10.3390/atmos14081209
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发表时间：
2023-07
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Zhaohui Xiong;Sichun Long;Maoqi Liu;Wenhao Wu;Lijun Kuang;Xiangen Lai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zhaohui Xiong;Sichun Long;Maoqi Liu;Wenhao Wu;Lijun Kuang;Xiangen Lai
在全球气候变化异常、旱涝灾害频发的背景下，研究某一区域可降水量与实际降水量的转换率趋势有助于分析这些自然灾害的成因。本文分析了1960-2020年湖北省月尺度上PWV与实际降水量换算率的变化趋势。为了估计历史PWV数据，我们在RF算法的基础上提出了一种利用水汽压估计PWV的新方法。利用探空仪数据对该方法进行了验证，其精度比湖北地区的传统方法提高了1 mm。在此基础上，外推了湖北省1960-2020年的月平均PWV，并分析了该期间PWV与降水的转换率。结果表明，无论是在经度方向还是在纬度方向上，转化率都没有明显的周期性变化。在湖北，地形在经度方向上变化较大，其转化率受地形的影响，最小的转化率出现在鄂西山区与江汉平原的过渡地带。在纬度方向上，转化率随纬度的增加而降低。
In the context of anomalous global climate change and the frequent occurrence of droughts and floods, studying trends in the conversion rate between precipitable water vapor (PWV) and actual precipitation in a certain region can help in analyzing the causes of these natural disasters. This paper examines the variation trend in the conversion rate between PWV and actual precipitation on a monthly scale in Hubei from 1960 to 2020. To estimate historical PWV data, we propose a new method for estimating PWV using water vapor pressure based on the RF algorithm. The new method was evaluated by radiosonde data and improved the accuracy by 1 mm over the traditional method in Hubei. Based on this method, we extrapolate the monthly average PWV in Hubei from 1960 to 2020 and analyze the conversion rate between PWV and precipitation during this period. Our results showed that there was no obvious cyclical pattern in the conversion rate in either the longitude or latitude directions. In Hubei, where the topography varies significantly in the longitude direction, the conversion rate is influenced by topography, with the smallest conversion rate being in the transition zone between the mountainous region of western Hubei and the Jianghan Plain. In the latitudinal direction, the conversion rate decreases with increasing latitude.