Potential ecological distribution of alien invasive species and risk assessment:: a case study of buffel grass in arid regions of Mexico
Potential ecological distribution of alien invasive species and risk assessment:: a case study of buffel grass in arid regions of Mexico
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1523-1739.2004.00166.x
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发表时间：
2004-12-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Alarcón, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arriaga, L;Castellanos, AE;Alarcón, J
外来入侵物种对生物多样性构成严重威胁，南亚和东非的本地物种黄花草就是这样的例子，它被引入美国和墨西哥用于改良牧场。在这里，我们提出了一种粗粒度的方法来确定墨西哥可能入侵的缓冲区草的区域。通过遗传算法得到了适合于黄花草入侵的潜在物种分布。我们用草药标本数据库、气候、土壤质地和植被的环境数字覆盖以及名为遗传算法规则集预测的程序生成了算法。这种空间建模方法在墨西哥索诺拉州的一个案例研究中得到了验证，那里已经证明了水牛草的存在。对于索诺拉的特殊情况，最受威胁的植被类型是沙漠灌木丛、梅斯奎特林地和热带落叶林。模型预测与在Sonora记录的现场观测相一致，并允许我们应用相同的程序来绘制墨西哥水牛草入侵的潜在地点地图。面临入侵风险的地区大多发生在沙漠灌木丛中，位于墨西哥北部的沙漠和半干旱地区。这一方法为评估、预防和管理在某些环境条件下可能成为入侵的外来物种提供了初步基线。此外，这种建模方法为决策者提供了一种工具，用于在涉及外来物种的情况下就土地使用管理做法作出决定。
Alien invasive species represent a severe risk to biodiversity Such is the case of buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris L.), a native species of Southern Asia and East Africa, which was introduced to the United States and Mexico for use in improved pasture. Here we present a coarse-grain approach to determine areas where buffel grass can potentially invade in Mexico. Potential species distribution suitable for an invasion by buffel grass, were obtained through genetic algorithms. We generated the algorithms with databases of herbaria specimens; environmental digital covers of climate, soil texture, and vegetation; and the program called Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction. This spatial modeling approach was validated with a case study for the state of Sonora, Mexico, where the occurrence of buffel grass has been proven. The most threatened vegetation types for the specific case of Sonora were desert scrub, mesquite woodlands, and tropical deciduous forest. The model prediction agreed with the field observations recorded in Sonora and allowed us to apply the same procedure to produce a map of the potential sites of buffel grass invasion for Mexico. The areas at risk of invasion mostly occurred in desert scrub, located in the and and semiarid regions of northern Mexico. This methodology provides an initial baseline for assessment, prevention, and management of alien species that may become invasive under certain environmental conditions. Additionally this modeling approach provides a tool for policy makers to use in making decisions on land-use management practices when alien species are involved.