Climate change and spring frost damages for sweet cherries in Germany
Climate change and spring frost damages for sweet cherries in Germany
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DOI：
10.1007/s00484-017-1443-9
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发表时间：
2018-02-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Moryson, Susanne
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chmielewski, Frank-M.;Goetz, Klaus-P.;Moryson, Susanne
春季霜冻可能是甜樱桃（Prunus avium L.）生产的限制因素。春季气温升高迫使花蕾发育，因此它们对冰冻温度的脆弱性不断增加。开花初期，花朵只能抵抗轻微的霜冻，而不会造成任何重大损害。在这项研究中，我们调查了德国东北部（柏林）和德国西南部（盖森海姆）两个不同地点历史和未来气候条件下樱花盛开期间春季霜冻损害的风险。两个物候模型是根据柏林-达勒姆实验甜樱桃园的物候观测开发的，并验证了休眠释放和温暖的气候条件（已发表），用于计算 1951-2015 年盖森海姆樱花的开始时间（外部模型验证）。随后，基于统计区划模型WETTREG（RCP 8.5），计算了两个地点历史（1971-2000）和未来气候条件（2011-2100）樱花期间霜冻的频率。从这些数据中，我们得出了最终的花朵损坏，定义为开花期间由于单次或多次霜冻事件导致的冻结花朵的百分比。结果表明，本世纪气温上升会使两个地点的樱花提前长达 17 天，与所使用的物候模型无关。霜冻的频率和强度具有较高的时间和局部变异性。对于这两个地点，没有发现开花期间霜冻频率和霜冻损害显着增加。在盖森海姆，霜冻损失自二十一世纪中叶以来显着减少。这项研究还强调了可靠的物候模型的重要性，该模型不仅适用于当前气候条件，而且适用于不同地点的气候条件变化。休眠释放的日期应始终是冷却/强迫模型中的已知参数。
Spring frost can be a limiting factor in sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) production. Rising temperatures in spring force the development of buds, whereby their vulnerability to freezing temperatures continuously increases. With the beginning of blossom, flowers can resist only light frosts without any significant damage. In this study, we investigated the risk of spring frost damages during cherry blossom for historical and future climate conditions at two different sites in NE (Berlin) and SW Germany (Geisenheim). Two phenological models, developed on the basis of phenological observations at the experimental sweet cherry orchard in Berlin-Dahlem and validated for endodormancy release and for warmer climate conditions (already published), were used to calculate the beginning of cherry blossom in Geisenheim, 1951-2015 (external model validation). Afterwards, on the basis of a statistical regionalisation model WETTREG (RCP 8.5), the frequency of frost during cherry blossom was calculated at both sites for historical (1971-2000) and future climate conditions (2011-2100). From these data, we derived the final flower damage, defined as the percentage of frozen flowers due to single or multiple frost events during blossom. The results showed that rising temperatures in this century can premature the beginning of cherry blossom up to 17 days at both sites, independent of the used phenological model. The frequency and strength of frost was characterised by a high temporal and local variability. For both sites, no significant increase in frost frequency and frost damage during blossom was found. In Geisenheim, frost damages significantly decreased from the middle of the twenty-first century. This study additionally emphasises the importance of reliable phenological models which not only work for current but also for changed climate conditions and at different sites. The date of endodormancy release should always be a known parameter in chilling/forcing models.