The effects of strain heterology on the epidemiology of equine influenza in a vaccinated population
The effects of strain heterology on the epidemiology of equine influenza in a vaccinated population
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2004.2766
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发表时间：
2004-08-07
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Grenfell, BT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Park, AW;Wood, JLN;Grenfell, BT
我们评估了菌株异源性（免疫学上相似但不相同的菌株）对接种人群中马流感的影响。使用与同源和异源疫苗接种者有关的个体动物数据，我们估计潜伏期和感染期的分布，根据病毒关键表面蛋白（血凝素）的交叉反应抗体的数量来量化感染风险，并估计感染发生后排出病毒（即具有感染性）的概率。数据表明，与同源疫苗接种的动物相比，异源疫苗接种的动物的感染期、感染风险（对于给定的疫苗诱导的交叉反应抗体水平）和排泄病毒的可能性增加。这些数据用于对修改后的易感性、暴露性、传染性和恢复/耐药（SEIR）模型进行参数化，该模型表明，这些相对较小的差异结合在一起，在人群水平上产生了很大的影响，异源疫苗接种者群体面临着流行病发生的显着增加的风险。
We assess the effects of strain heterology (strains that are immunologically similar but not identical) on equine influenza in a vaccinated population. Using data relating to individual animals, for both homologous and heterologous vaccinees, we estimate distributions for the latent and infectious periods, quantify the risk of becoming infected in terms of the quantity of cross-reactive antibodies to a key surface protein of the virus (haemagglutinin) and estimate the probability of excreting virus (i.e. becoming infectious) given that infection has occurred. The data suggest that the infectious period, the risk of becoming infected (for a given vaccine-induced level of cross-reactive antibodies) and the probability of excreting virus are increased for heterologously vaccinated animals when compared with homologously vaccinated animals. The data are used to parameterize a modified susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered/resistant (SEIR) model, which shows that these relatively small differences combine to have a large effect at the population level, where populations of heterologous vaccinees face a significantly increased risk of an epidemic occurring.