System Dynamics (SD) -based concession pricing model for PPP highway projects
System Dynamics (SD) -based concession pricing model for PPP highway projects
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijproman.2011.06.001
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发表时间：
2012-02
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Yelin Xu;Chengshuang Sun;M. Skibniewski;A. Chan;John F. Y. Yeung;Hu Cheng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yelin Xu;Chengshuang Sun;M. Skibniewski;A. Chan;John F. Y. Yeung;Hu Cheng
特许价格的设计是公私合作（PPP）公路项目财务可行性的关键。这是谈判期间需要确定的最重要的变量之一。然而，很少有方法可以计算这个变量的值。本文的研究旨在建立一个可靠、客观和系统的模型，以确定PPP公路项目的合理特许权价格，该模型基于可行性研究期间编制的预估财务报表。首先通过文献综述，确定并整理了PPP公路项目的定价参数和价格风险因素。基于特许权定价参数，利用系统动力学技术建立了特许权定价模型，并通过中国实际收费隧道项目验证了基于sd的特许权定价模型的有效性。试验结果表明，该模型可靠、准确，适合实际经营者用于特许权价格的确定。为了克服风险因素对特许价格的影响，提出了一种考虑不可量化风险因素的基于案例推理（Case-base Reasoning， CBR）技术的定价调整模型。认为合理可行的特许定价模式可以为私人投资者和东道国政府创造“双赢”的局面。本文的研究框架也可为研究其他设施的定价模式提供参考。
The design of concession price is essential to financial viability of Public–Private Partnership (PPP) highway projects. It is one of the most important variables that need to be determined during the negotiation period. However, there are few methods available for calculating the value of this variable. Research described in this paper aims to develop a reliable, objective, and systematic model for determining a rational concession price for PPP highway projects based on pro forma financial statements developed during the feasibility study period. The pricing parameters and price risk factors of PPP highway project were first identified and compiled through a comprehensive literature review. A concession pricing model using System Dynamics technique was then developed based on concession pricing parameters and the effectiveness of the proposed SD-based concession pricing model was verified by a real toll tunnel project located in China. The test result shows that the proposed model is reliable, accurate, and suitable for the application by practitioners for concession price determination. To overcome the effect of risk factors on concession price, a pricing adjustment model using Case-base Reasoning (CBR) technique was proposed to consider the unquantifiable risk factors. It is believed that a rational and practical concession pricing model can create a ‘win–win’ situation for both the private investor and the host government. This research framework can also be used as a reference to study other facilities' pricing models.