Modeling Spatial Establishment Patterns of Exotic Forest Insects in Urban Areas in Relation to Tree Cover and Propagule Pressure
Modeling Spatial Establishment Patterns of Exotic Forest Insects in Urban Areas in Relation to Tree Cover and Propagule Pressure
复制标题
模拟城市地区外来森林昆虫与树木覆盖和繁殖压力的空间建立模式
DOI：
10.1603/ec09203
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Margosian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Manuel Colunga;R. Haack;Roger Magarey;M. Margosian
摘要 随着国际贸易的增长，城市地区作为外来森林昆虫 (EFI) 门户的地位也日益突出。在城市地区划定入侵热点（即可能建立的区域）将有助于监测工作。我们使用传播压力框架来界定假设的通才 EFI 在美国六个城市地区的建立热点：芝加哥、底特律、休斯顿、洛杉矶-长滩-圣安娜、纽约-纽瓦克和西雅图。我们评估了城市树木覆盖和繁殖压力如何相互作用来界定建立热点，并将这些热点的位置与美国最近检测到的两种 EFI 进行了比较：亚洲舞毒蛾品系 Lymantria dispar (L.)（鳞翅目：Lymantriidae）和亚洲长角甲虫 Anoplophora glabripennis（Motschulsky）（鞘翅目：Cerambycidae）。我们使用每个城市区域的 5 公里直径单元格，使用输入数据（城市树木覆盖率和繁殖压力）来建立模型，并使用 Moran's I 来界定热点。我们使用城市人口规模和商业工业用地面积作为模型中繁殖压力的指标。 EFI 的相对建立更多地受到两个繁殖体压力指标的影响，而不是树木覆盖度的影响。与基于人口的热点相比，洛杉矶-长滩-圣安娜和纽约-纽瓦克划定的基于土地利用的热点分别包含更多的 L. dispar 和 A. glabripennis 的实际检测结果。芝加哥市区的光肩毛蠹检测热点类型之间没有显着差异。讨论了这些发现对城市地区监测计划的管理和设计的影响。
ABSTRACT As international trade increases so does the prominence of urban areas as gateways for exotic forest insects (EFI). Delimiting hot spots for invasions (i.e., areas where establishment is likely) within urban areas would facilitate monitoring efforts. We used a propagule-pressure framework to delimit establishment hot spots of a hypothetical generalist EFI in six U.S. urban areas: Chicago, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, New York-Newark, and Seattle. We assessed how urban tree cover and propagule pressure interact to delimit establishment hot spots and compared the location of these hot spots with actual recent U.S. detections of two EFI: the Asian strain of the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.) (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), and Asian longhorned beetle, Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae). Using a lattice of 5-km-diameter cells for each urban area, we used the input data (urban tree cover and propagule pressure) to model establishment and Moran's I to delimit hot spots. We used urban population size and the area of commercial-industrial land use as indicators of propagule pressure in the model. Relative establishment of EFI was influenced more by the two propagule pressure indicators than by tree cover. The delimited land use-based hot spots for Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana and New York-Newark encompassed more of the actual detections of L. dispar and A. glabripennis, respectively, than the population-based hot spots. No significant difference occurred between hot spot types for A. glabripennis detections in the Chicago urban area. Implications of these findings for management and design of monitoring programs in urban areas are discussed.