Age × stage‐classified demographic analysis: a comprehensive approach
Age × stage‐classified demographic analysis: a comprehensive approach
复制标题
年龄×阶段分类人口分析：综合方法
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
S. V. van Daalen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. Caswell;Charlotte de Vries;N. Hartemink;Gregory Roth;S. V. van Daalen
摘要本文提出了一个综合的人口统计学分析理论，其中个人按年龄和阶段分类。最早的人口模型是按年龄分类的。生态学家采用了人类人口统计学家开发的方法，并使用生命表来量化群体的存活率和生育率以及人口的增长率和结构。后来，受植物和昆虫研究的启发，开发了按大小或阶段结构的矩阵种群模型。这些模型的理论已经扩展到涵盖年龄分类人口统计学等的所有方面。考虑按年龄和阶段分类的人口是一种自然的发展。自20世纪60年代以来，在生态学和人类人口统计学方面，已经出现了稳定的涓涓细流，分析了年龄×阶段分类的人口的一个或另一个方面。在这里，我们使用多状态矩阵人口模型的向量置换公式，将特定年龄和阶段的生命率纳入人口统计分析。我们提供了队列结果的生命表功能（生存率，死亡率和生育率），队列内选择的动态，寿命的统计，年龄和死亡阶段的联合分布，以及寿命差距的统计。结合过渡和生育率产生了一套完整的人口动态结果，包括人口增长率和结构，净生殖率，终生生殖的统计数据，世代时间的措施。我们提出了一个完整的分析，一个假设的模式物种，灵感来自poecilogonous海洋无脊椎动物，产生两种幼虫后代。考虑到年龄和阶段的共同影响，许多熟悉的人口统计结果变得多维，因此边缘和混合分布的计算是一个重要的工具。从年龄分类的角度来看，阶段结构是一种未观察到的异质性。从阶段划分的角度来看，年龄结构是未观察到的异质性。在年龄×阶段分类模型中，人口统计结果的方差可以划分为两个来源的贡献。由于这些模型被公式化为矩阵，因此可以进行完整的敏感性分析。随着更详细和更长的纵向研究的发展，年龄×阶段分类的人口统计学将变得更加普遍和重要。
Abstract This paper presents a comprehensive theory for the demographic analysis of populations in which individuals are classified by both age and stage. The earliest demographic models were age classified. Ecologists adopted methods developed by human demographers and used life tables to quantify survivorship and fertility of cohorts and the growth rates and structures of populations. Later, motivated by studies of plants and insects, matrix population models structured by size or stage were developed. The theory of these models has been extended to cover all the aspects of age‐classified demography and more. It is a natural development to consider populations classified by both age and stage. A steady trickle of results has appeared since the 1960s, analyzing one or another aspect of age × stage‐classified populations, in both ecology and human demography. Here, we use the vec‐permutation formulation of multistate matrix population models to incorporate age‐ and stage‐specific vital rates into demographic analysis. We present cohort results for the life table functions (survivorship, mortality, and fertility), the dynamics of intra‐cohort selection, the statistics of longevity, the joint distribution of age and stage at death, and the statistics of life disparity. Combining transitions and fertility yields a complete set of population dynamic results, including population growth rates and structures, net reproductive rate, the statistics of lifetime reproduction, and measures of generation time. We present a complete analysis of a hypothetical model species, inspired by poecilogonous marine invertebrates that produce two kinds of larval offspring. Given the joint effects of age and stage, many familiar demographic results become multidimensional, so calculations of marginal and mixture distributions are an important tool. From an age‐classified point of view, stage structure is a form of unobserved heterogeneity. From a stage‐classified point of view, age structure is unobserved heterogeneity. In an age × stage‐classified model, variance in demographic outcomes can be partitioned into contributions from both sources. Because these models are formulated as matrices, they are amenable to a complete sensitivity analysis. As more detailed and longer longitudinal studies are developed, age × stage‐classified demography will become more common and more important.
马尔可夫死亡率模型：准平稳性和不同初始分布的影响。
DOI：
10.1016/j.tpb.2003.10.007
发表时间：
2004
期刊：
Theoretical population biology.
影响因子：
--
作者：
Steinsaltz,David;Evans,StevenN
通讯作者：
Evans,StevenN