Effect of geographic background and equilibrium state on niche model transferability: predicting areas of invasion of Leptoglossus occidentalis
Effect of geographic background and equilibrium state on niche model transferability: predicting areas of invasion of Leptoglossus occidentalis
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DOI：
10.1007/s10530-013-0559-z
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发表时间：
2014-05
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
G. Zhu;D. Rédei;P. Kment;W. Bu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Zhu;D. Rédei;P. Kment;W. Bu
生态位保守主义为生态位模型在生物入侵中的应用提供了支持，然而，生态位模型的平衡状态和地理背景对生态位模型可转移性的影响却没有得到足够的重视。西方针叶树种虫，原产于北美西部，现已向东扩展范围，成为欧洲和亚洲的一种入侵害虫。比较了在一个较小的本地种群和两个较大的扩展种群范围内校准的生态位模型。我们发现L1的气候生态位。西方主义在北美的稳步扩张和在欧洲的迅速传播期间得到了保留。基于小的西部原生范围的模型成功地捕捉到了东方扩张并引入了欧洲人口，而基于大区域的模型则随着假定的平衡状态而变化。基于均衡状态的模型成功了，但基于非平衡状态的模型未能预测欧洲的范围。我们的研究估计了全球入侵风险区域为。西方主义认为，在生态位保守论的基础上，基于物种气候平衡的合理地理分布进行建模，可以保证生态位模型预测的可转移性。在解释生态位差异化的低生态位模型可转移性和转发管理策略的信息时，应谨慎行事。
Niche conservatism providing support for using ecological niche modeling in biological invasions has been widely noticed, however, the equilibrium state and geographic background effect on niche model transferability has received scant attention. The western conifer seed bug,Leptoglossus occidentalis, native to western North America, has expanded its range eastward and has become an invasive pest in Europe and Asia. Niche models calibrated on the ranges of a small native population and two large expanding populations were compared. We found that the climate niche ofL. occidentalisis conserved during its steady expansion in North America and rapid spread in Europe. Models based on the small western native range successfully captured the eastern expanding and introduced European populations, whereas the large area-based models varied with the presumed state of equilibrium. The equilibrium state based model succeeded but the non-equilibrium based model failed to predict the range in Europe. Our study estimates global invasion risk zones forL. occidentalisand suggests that, based on niche conservatism, modeling based on a reasonable geographic distribution at a climatic equilibrium of a species could guarantee the transferability of niche model prediction. Caution is warranted in interpreting low niche model transferability with niche differentiation and forwarding message for management strategy.