The Path-Dependency of Low-Income Neighbourhood Trajectories: An Approach for Analysing Neighbourhood Change
The Path-Dependency of Low-Income Neighbourhood Trajectories: An Approach for Analysing Neighbourhood Change
复制标题
低收入社区轨迹的路径依赖性：分析社区变化的方法
DOI：
10.1007/s12061-016-9189-z
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
M. Ham
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Zwiers;R. Kleinhans;M. Ham
在许多当代西方城市，富裕社区和贫困社区之间的差距似乎正在扩大。大多数关于社区变化的研究都集中在社区降级或高档化的具体案例研究上。调查大城市地区社会空间极化的研究经常比较两个时间点的社区，忽略了社区潜在的动态特征。在当前的文献中，具有相似特征的社区是否随着时间的推移经历相似的变化这一问题仍然没有答案。因此，尚不清楚为什么有些社区似乎比其他社区更容易发生变化。在本文中，我们提出了一种分析邻里变化的双重方法。我们认为，研究人员应该采取长期视角（20-40 年），因为重大变化只有在较长时间后才能显现出来，并关注更详细的邻里轨迹，以了解邻里变化如何与环境相互关联。我们以 1971 年至 2013 年期间的荷兰社区为重点，使用创新的可视化技术分析了物理特征对低收入社区轨迹的作用。树形结构的差异分析可以实现完整邻里路径的可视化，从而能够分析复杂的、情境化的变化模式。我们发现，社区和住宅的原始质量似乎是未来社区轨迹的重要预测因素，表明高度的路径依赖。
The gap between wealthy and disadvantaged neighbourhoods seems to be increasing in many contemporary Western cities. Most studies of neighbourhood change focus on specific case-studies of neighbourhood downgrading or gentrification. Studies investigating socio-spatial polarisation in larger urban areas often compare neighbourhoods at two points in time, neglecting the underlying dynamic character of neighbourhoods. In the current literature, the question if neighbourhoods with similar characteristics experience similar changes over time remains unanswered. As a result, it is unclear why some neighbourhoods appear to be more prone to change than others. In this paper, we propose a dual approach for analysing neighbourhood change. We argue that researchers should both adopt a long-term perspective (20–40 years), because significant changes are only visible after longer periods of time, and focus on more detailed neighbourhood trajectories to understand how neighbourhood change is interrelated with context. Focussing on Dutch neighbourhoods over the period 1971–2013, we analyse the role of physical characteristics on low-income neighbourhood trajectories using an innovative visualisation technique. A tree-structured discrepancy analysis allows for the visualisation of complete neighbourhood pathways, enabling the analysis of complex, contextualised patterns of change. We find that the original quality of neighbourhoods and dwellings seems to be an important predictor for future neighbourhood trajectories, indicating a high level of path-dependency.