Climate Change over Xinjiang Region in the 21st Century Simulated by a High Resolution Regional Climate Model
Climate Change over Xinjiang Region in the 21st Century Simulated by a High Resolution Regional Climate Model
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发表时间：
2011
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通讯作者：
Shi Ying
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作者：
Shi Ying
基于嵌套在全球气候模式中的区域气候模式（RegCM 3）对21世纪世纪的高分辨率模拟（MIROC3.2_hires）在东亚上空，分析了IPCC SRES A1B情景下新疆地区的气候变化，验证了模式对新疆地区年平均气温和降水的模拟能力结果表明，模式较好地再现了1981 - 2000年华北地区大气环流的空间分布和总量，与观测资料相比，模式在盆地地区表现出暖偏性，在山区表现出冷偏性，而且，模式的模拟结果与观测资料的对比表明，模式的模拟结果与观测资料吻合较好。在模拟过程中发现，盆地降水量低估，山脉降水量高估，中部地区降水量明显增暖（2041 - 2060）和21世纪末（2081 - 2100），而在世纪末，特别是在冬季，除部分地区外，冬、夏季降水量普遍增加，世纪末降水量增加幅度大于世纪中叶，气候变暖的幅度和降水量的增加对地形有很强的依赖性。2一般来说，气候变暖在盆地上更大，从区域平均来看，新疆地区的增暖和降水量的增加大于全国。
Based on a high resolution simulation of the 21st century by a regional climate model(RegCM3) nested within a global climate model(MIROC3.2_hires) over East Asia,climate changes over Xinjiang Region under the IPCC SRES A1B scenario are analyzed.Validation of the model performances in simulating annual mean temperature and precipitation of present time(1981—2000) in the region are firstly carried out.Results show that the spatial distributions and amount of them are well reproduced by the model.Compared to observations,it is found that the model exhibits a warm bias over basins and cold bias over mountainous areas.Moreover,underestimation of precipitation in the basins and overestimation of it over mountain ranges are found in the simulation.Significant warming is simulated in the middle(2041—2060) and the end of the 21st century(2081—2100) over the region,while greater warming in the end of the century,in particular in winter,are found.General increase of precipitation is found both in winter and summer,except in portions of the region.The increase is more profound in the end of the century compared to the middle of it.In addition,the magnitude of the warming and amount of the precipitation increase show strong dependency on topography.In general,the warming is greater over basins,while the increase of precipitation amount is more significant over mountain slopes with seasonal difference.As for the regional mean,greater warming and precipitation increase are found in Xinjiang Region compared to those over the whole China.