Structural decline in China's CO2 emissions through transitions in industry and energy systems
Structural decline in China's CO2 emissions through transitions in industry and energy systems
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通过产业和能源体系转型，中国二氧化碳排放结构性下降
DOI：
10.1038/s41561-018-0161-1
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发表时间：
2018-08-01
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
Davis, Steven J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guan, Dabo;Meng, Jing;Davis, Steven J.
作为《巴黎协定》的一部分，中国承诺到2030年使其二氧化碳排放达到峰值。回顾过去，这一承诺可能已经实现了-中国的排放量在2013年达到峰值，达到9.53亿吨二氧化碳的水平，并在2014年至2016年期间逐年下降。但是，保持这些削减的持续性的前景取决于中国不同变化的相对贡献。本文利用最新的能源、经济和工业数据，对2007年至2016年中国二氧化碳排放量的峰值和下降的驱动因素进行了定量评估。我们发现，中国经济增长放缓使减排变得更加容易。然而，这一下降在很大程度上与产业结构的变化和煤炭作为能源所占份额的下降有关。能源密度（单位国内生产总值的能源）和排放密度（单位能源的排放）的下降也是造成这一下降的原因。基于计量经济学（累积和）检验，我们确认，在2015年前后，中国的排放模式有一个明显的结构性突变。我们的结论是，中国排放量的下降是结构性的，如果新生的工业和能源系统转型继续下去，这种下降可能会持续下去。
As part of the Paris Agreement, China pledged to peak its CO2 emissions by 2030. In retrospect, the commitment may have been fulfilled as it was being made-China's emissions peaked in 2013 at a level of 9.53 gigatons of CO2, and have declined in each year from 2014 to 2016. However, the prospect of maintaining the continuance of these reductions depends on the relative contributions of different changes in China. Here, we quantitatively evaluate the drivers of the peak and decline of China's CO2 emissions between 2007 and 2016 using the latest available energy, economic and industry data. We find that slowing economic growth in China has made it easier to reduce emissions. Nevertheless, the decline is largely associated with changes in industrial structure and a decline in the share of coal used for energy. Decreasing energy intensity (energy per unit gross domestic product) and emissions intensity (emissions per unit energy) also contributed to the decline. Based on an econometric (cumulative sum) test, we confirm that there is a clear structural break in China's emission pattern around 2015. We conclude that the decline of Chinese emissions is structural and is likely to be sustained if the nascent industrial and energy system transitions continue.