An improved estimation of the poleward expansion of coral habitats based on the inter-annual variation of sea surface temperatures
An improved estimation of the poleward expansion of coral habitats based on the inter-annual variation of sea surface temperatures
复制标题
基于海面温度的年际变化对珊瑚栖息地向极地扩张的改进估计
DOI：
10.1007/s00338-015-1347-2
复制
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Yasuhiro Yamanaka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Takao;H. Yamano;Kaoru Sugihara;N. Kumagai;M. Fujii;Yasuhiro Yamanaka
自20世纪30年代以来，沿着日本海岸观察到珊瑚栖息地向极地扩张。以前的模拟研究利用最冷月份的十年平均海面温度（SSTs）预测了向极地的扩张。然而，这种向极地扩展可能受到最冷月份海温年际变化的影响，这是以前没有考虑过的。在本研究中，比较了基于海温年际变化和最冷月份的年代际平均海温考虑珊瑚死亡的情况下珊瑚向极地扩张的模拟模式。使用最新气候预估模式（MIROC4h）模拟的历史和未来全球变暖的月平均海温。以最冷月份海温年际变化为基础，考虑死亡率模拟的珊瑚向极地扩张比不考虑死亡率的模拟更能再现观测到的向极地扩张速度。我们的研究结果表明，考虑基于海水温度年际变化的珊瑚死亡率对于产生更现实的珊瑚栖息地向极地扩展的重要性。
The poleward expansion of coral habitats has been observed along the Japanese coast since the 1930s. Previous modeling studies have projected a poleward expansion using decadal-mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the coldest months. However, this poleward expansion could be affected by the inter-annual variation of SST in the coldest months, which has not been considered before. In this study, the simulated pattern of poleward expansion was compared between cases where coral mortality was considered based on the inter-annual variation of SST and the decadal-mean SST in the coldest months. Modeled monthly mean SSTs for historical and future global warming simulations from the most recent climate projection model (MIROC4h) were used. The poleward expansion of corals simulated by considering mortality based on the inter-annual variation of SST in the coldest months better reproduced the observed poleward expansion speed compared to the simulations without such a consideration. Our results show the importance of considering coral mortality based on the inter-annual variation of seawater temperature to produce a more realistic poleward expansion of coral habitats.