Epidemiology of urban water distribution systems
Epidemiology of urban water distribution systems
复制标题
城市供水系统的流行病学
DOI：
10.1002/2013wr015017
复制
发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
R. Little
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Bardet;R. Little
世界各地的城市供水系统都有许多老旧脆弱的管道，这些管道不可避免地破裂，淹没街道，破坏财产，扰乱经济和社会活动。这样的断裂经常戏剧性地出现在时间簇中，就像2009年发生在洛杉矶的那样。这些密集的管道破裂与极端气候事件（如热浪或空气污染）期间观察到的人类死亡率有许多共同特征。借鉴人类流行病学的研究和实证研究，引入一个框架来分析破坏性管道破裂的时间变化，可以帮助水机构更好地了解集群管道故障，并制定措施，以尽量减少由它们造成的中断。假设在任何时候，包括水分配系统的一组管道将由于疲劳和腐蚀而处于弱化状态。这个脆弱的队列在正常操作过程中变得脆弱，并最终由于异常应力引起的裂纹长度快速增加而断裂。本文开发的流行病学收获模型模拟了观测到的每月管道破裂的时间序列，具有解释力和预测力。它还表明，来自医学等非工程学科的模型可以为基础设施系统的性能提供更好的见解。
Urban water distribution systems worldwide contain numerous old and fragile pipes that inevitably break, flood streets and damage property, and disrupt economic and social activities. Such breaks often present dramatically in temporal clusters as occurred in Los Angeles during 2009. These clustered pipe breaks share many characteristics with human mortality observed during extreme climatological events such as heat waves or air pollution. Drawing from research and empirical studies in human epidemiology, a framework is introduced to analyze the time variations of disruptive pipe breaks that can help water agencies better understand clustered pipe failures and institute measures to minimize the disruptions caused by them. It is posited that at any time, a cohort of the pipes comprising the water distribution system will be in a weakened state due to fatigue and corrosion. This frail cohort becomes vulnerable during normal operations and ultimately breaks due to rapid increase in crack lengths induced by abnormal stressors. The epidemiological harvesting model developed in this paper simulates an observed time series of monthly pipe breaks and has both explanatory and predictive power. It also demonstrates that models from nonengineering disciplines such as medicine can provide improved insights into the performance of infrastructure systems.