Domestic well vulnerability to drought duration and unsustainable groundwater management in California’s Central Valley
Domestic well vulnerability to drought duration and unsustainable groundwater management in California’s Central Valley
复制标题
加州中央山谷的家用井易受干旱持续时间和不可持续地下水管理的影响
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
G. Fogg
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Pauloo;A. Escriva;H. Dahlke;A. Fencl;H. Guillon;G. Fogg
数以百万计的加利福尼亚人通过家庭威尔斯井获得饮用水，这很容易受到干旱和不可持续的地下水管理的影响。地下水超采和气候变化下干旱持续时间延长的可能性威胁到国内水井的可靠性，但我们缺乏评估此类事件影响的工具。在这里，我们利用943 469完井报告和20年的地下水高程数据，开发一个空间上明确的国内井故障模型，覆盖加州的中央谷。我们的模型成功地再现了2012-2016年严重干旱期间观察到的国内油井故障的空间分布（n = 2027）。接下来，评估了较长干旱持续时间（5-8年）对国内油井失效的影响，表明如果2012-2016年的干旱持续6 - 8年，总共将有4037-5460至6538-8056口威尔斯油井失效。同样的干旱持续时间，加上2017年潮湿的冬季，平均减少了498和738口井。此外，我们映射脆弱的威尔斯在高故障风险，并发现它们与预测的井故障的集群。最后，我们评估了不同的地下水管理计划的时间和实施如何影响地下水位，从而影响国内水井故障。当历史透支持续到2040年，国内油井故障范围从5966到10466（取决于所考虑的历史时期）。当可持续性在2020年至2040年之间逐步实现时，井故障范围从3677到6943，当2020年之后不允许地下水下降时，从1516到2513。
Millions of Californians access drinking water via domestic wells, which are vulnerable to drought and unsustainable groundwater management. Groundwater overdraft and the possibility of longer drought duration under climate change threatens domestic well reliability, yet we lack tools to assess the impact of such events. Here, we leverage 943 469 well completion reports and 20 years of groundwater elevation data to develop a spatially-explicit domestic well failure model covering California’s Central Valley. Our model successfully reproduces the spatial distribution of observed domestic well failures during the severe 2012–2016 drought (n = 2027). Next, the impact of longer drought duration (5–8 years) on domestic well failure is evaluated, indicating that if the 2012–2016 drought would have continued into a 6 to 8 year long drought, a total of 4037–5460 to 6538–8056 wells would fail. The same drought duration scenarios with an intervening wet winter in 2017 lead to an average of 498 and 738 fewer well failures. Additionally, we map vulnerable wells at high failure risk and find that they align with clusters of predicted well failures. Lastly, we evaluate how the timing and implementation of different projected groundwater management regimes impact groundwater levels and thus domestic well failure. When historic overdraft persists until 2040, domestic well failures range from 5966 to 10 466 (depending on the historic period considered). When sustainability is achieved progressively between 2020 and 2040, well failures range from 3677 to 6943, and from 1516 to 2513 when groundwater is not allowed to decline after 2020.