From krill to convenience stores: Forecasting the economic and ecological effects of fisheries management on the US West Coast
From krill to convenience stores: Forecasting the economic and ecological effects of fisheries management on the US West Coast
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DOI：
10.1016/j.marpol.2012.02.005
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发表时间：
2012-09
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
I. Kaplan;Jerry L. Leonard
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
I. Kaplan;Jerry L. Leonard
需要更好地了解海洋生态系统与依赖这些系统的人类社区和经济体之间的联系。在这里，这些联系是针对美国西海岸的加州海流，通过将渔业生态系统模型（亚特兰蒂斯）与经济模型（IO-PAC）相结合，追踪海产品上岸量的变化如何影响更广泛的经济。广泛的渔业管理方案的潜在影响进行了探讨，包括现状管理，切换努力拖网到其他齿轮，空间管理方案。相对于现状，其他情况涉及短期的离船收入损失，主要是底拖网船队的损失。其他船队，特别是使用罐和底层延绳钓的固定渔具船队，在某些情况下获得了收入，尽管岩鱼保护区的空间关闭减少了固定渔具船队的收入。加工商和批发商的收入跟踪了底拖网船队的趋势，按价值计算，底拖网船队占总上岸量的58%。收入对更广泛经济的影响（雇员薪酬和企业主的收入）反映了收入趋势。亚特兰蒂斯生态系统模型的长期预测（15年）预测，种群将大量重建，船队捕捞量将增加。对现状的15年预测表明，渔业部门的收入将增加2700万美元，整体经济将增加2300万美元的收入和385个就业岗位，约增长25%。将生态和经济模型联系起来，可以使用多种标准评估渔业管理政策，并比较管理行动产生的潜在经济和养护权衡。
There is a need to better understand the linkages between marine ecosystems and the human communities and economies that depend on these systems. Here those linkages are drawn for the California Current on the US West Coast, by combining a fishery ecosystem model (Atlantis) with an economic model (IO-PAC) that traces how changes in seafood landings impact the broader economy. The potential effects of broad fisheries management options are explored, including status quo management, switching effort from trawl to other gears, and spatial management scenarios. Relative to Status Quo, the other scenarios here involved short-term ex-vessel revenue losses, primarily to the bottom trawl fleet. Other fleets, particularly the fixed gear fleet that uses pots and demersal longlines, gained revenue in some scenarios, though spatial closures of Rockfish Conservation Areas reduced revenue to fixed gear fleets. Processor and wholesaler revenue tracked trends in the bottom trawl fleet, which accounted for 58% of total landings by value. Income impacts (employee compensation and earnings of business owners) on the broader economy mirrored the revenue trends. The long-term forecast (15 years) from the Atlantis ecosystem model predicted substantial stock rebuilding and increases in fleet catch. The 15 year projection of Status Quo suggested an additional ∼$27 million in revenue for the fisheries sectors, and an additional $23 million in income and 385 jobs in the broader economy, roughly a 25% increase. Linking the ecological and economic models here has allowed evaluation of fishery management policies using multiple criteria, and comparison of potential economic and conservation trade-offs that stem from management actions.