RECENT TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS IN SOUTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
RECENT TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS IN SOUTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
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南美洲南部近期气温变化
DOI：
10.1002/(sici)1097-0088(199701)17:1
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发表时间：
1997
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
P. Aceituno
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Rosenblüth;H. Fuenzalida;P. Aceituno
介绍了本世纪智利和阿根廷地表平均气温以及智利极端气温的严格评估结果。观察结果均质化，以产生一组尽可能可靠的时间序列。计算出 1933 年至 1992 年期间的线性趋势，导致 100 年−1 期间升温速率从 1±3°C 升至 2±0°C；在过去的三十年里，变暖速度是原来的两倍。南纬 41° 左右不存在普遍变暖，该地区盛行 1950 年代至 1970 年代的冷却期。积极和消极的趋势主要是由于最低气温的变化造成的。据估算，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动对南美太平洋沿岸 18°S 至 53°S 地表温度的影响向南减弱。当提取其影响后，随着时间的推移，变暖趋势会变得更加均匀。特别是，1976 年左右南方涛动指数的变化在几乎所有观测站的最低气温中都能感受到，开启了智利太平洋沿岸数值较高的时期。该系列中自相关的趋势修正仅引入小的局部变化。 © 1997 英国皇家气象学会。
Results from a critical appraisal of surface mean air temperature in Chile and Argentina and extreme air temperature in Chile during the present century are presented. Observations were homogenized to produce a set of time series as reliable as possible. Linear trends computed for the period 1933–1992 resulted in warming rates from 1ċ3 to 2ċ0 °C 100 years−1; during the last three decades warming rates are twice as large. The generalized warming is not present around 41°S, where a cooling period from the 1950s to the 1970s prevails. Both positive and negative trends are due mostly to changes in minimum temperatures. The influence of El Niņo–Southern Oscillation on surface temperature along the Pacific South American coast from 18°S to 53°S was estimated and found to decrease southward. When its effect is extracted, warming trends become more uniform through time. In particular, the Southern Oscillation Index change around 1976 is felt in minimum temperatures at almost all stations, starting a period with higher values along the Chilean Pacific coast. Trend corrections for autocorrelation in the series introduce only small local changes. © 1997 by the Royal Meteorological Society.